While newsrooms might not be able to project the winner on election night, it’s likely that we’ll be able to make a very good guess.

If Biden wins any of Ohio, Iowa, NC, Georgia, Arizona, Florida or Texas, he wins. If he loses all of them by a slim margin, he is still probably going to win. Remember, Pennsylvania only votes for Biden by .72%!

So if Biden loses Georgia by 3 and Arizona by 2, that would constitute a 2% shift in those states from 2016. A two percent shift nationwide would likely put Biden over the top in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Typing this thread out makes me realize just how horrible Trump’s odds are.