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Thread of quick hit thoughts about the Zvi blog post from me, a data scientist. I read his post from today 10/29 and the one prior to it from 10/22.
I thought the posts were interesting, but ultimately they are presentations of data followed by some subjective opinions. To someone that isn't data literate, it's easy to pass those opinions off as hard facts / obvious conclusions from the data. They aren't.
Data analysis is best meant to augment subject matter expertise, not replace it. I don't think Zvi was trying to talk over experts or cast himself as one, but I wouldn't buy too much into anything he says that doesn't get an explicit stamp of approval from those experts.
Case in point, one of my data jobs was in anti-money laundering. I had access to billions of transaction records, and could have maybe found some potential instances of laundering, but it wasn't until I got certified in AML (CAMS) that I realized how little I knew about it.
I think casting pandemic-cautious people as the "doom patrol" is extremely harmful. If you aren't exactly data literate and read a post like that, an easy conclusion you could potentially draw is "hey, a smart data guy says it's possible to take the virus TOO seriously".
That could convince someone to relax their risk tolerance for virus exposure, which they might not have a good grip on how to do. Enough instances of that WILL lead an increase in infection (which we all know the consequences of). To me that is unbelievably irresponsible.
I am just as fatigued with masks and distancing and etc. as you are, but absolutely do not let a blog post with a bunch of charts and graphs somehow convince you to let your guard down.
I also saw some replies dismissing Zvi and Zvi-defender arguments b/c they came from cis white men, or b/c "data science" is tech bro nonsense (it isn't), or b/c they were friends with <horrible Magic person>. Cut this shit out. These aren't productive arguments and you know it.
Don't overcalibrate someone's arguments because of their identity. Smart people can be misguided & lack knowledge, but they are still allowed to be smart.
To summarize, I think the posts could have been mostly good if they stuck to just facts, but ended up being bad for a small variety of reasons (the subjective nature of the posts + the potential influence they carry).
