Read on Twitter
It is easy to see of the loss of life from covid19, and hard to see the loss of life from closing schools, but, make no mistake, both rob people of years of life
Thus, a trade-off has to be made
A complex policy decision that cannot be ignored...
Thus, a trade-off has to be made
A complex policy decision that cannot be ignored...
Right now, in Europe, children are winning
Many nations have decided to keep schools running, and would close everything before they touch schools
In the US, it is the precise opposite.
We popularized fear-mongering before it was popular (1990s Dateline anyone)...
Many nations have decided to keep schools running, and would close everything before they touch schools
In the US, it is the precise opposite.
We popularized fear-mongering before it was popular (1990s Dateline anyone)...
The media w/ anecdotes have scared parents into thinking the risk to children from sars-cov-2 far exceeds other risks they accept season after season (when it does not)
We have teachers unions that have rebelled against reopening, and...
We have teachers unions that have rebelled against reopening, and...
Because DJT said to re-open schools, we have many who doggedly oppose, simply because he said it
the consequences of this will be profound...
the consequences of this will be profound...
we will have high rates of drop out that exceed prior eras.
Drop-out and school closures will reduce upward mobility (PS- it was not doing well lately here in the USA)...
Drop-out and school closures will reduce upward mobility (PS- it was not doing well lately here in the USA)...
Poor upward mobility will lead to serious civil discontent and instability, more polarization, and anger, and of course, life expectancy will fall, and politics may be seized by charismatic folks who tell lies (far worse lies than we have seen).
Thus, I conclude, drawing upon multiple streams of available data, that more years of life are lost from closing schools than were we to open them
This would likely be true if kids were equally likely to transmit, & almost surely true if they are 50% as likely (as data show)
This would likely be true if kids were equally likely to transmit, & almost surely true if they are 50% as likely (as data show)
The group I am most disappointed with are progressives, who, when it mattered, were not willing to defend their core values, and not willing to think about the world in terms of tradeoffs
instead favoring farcical absolutes.
and...
instead favoring farcical absolutes.
and...
as someone who reports to clinic each week in person to see patients, who are not screened for sars-cov-2, I am also disappointed in folks who are unwilling to accept any personal risk in order to defend the last tattered runs in the ladder of opportunity
And I am also disappointed in all the folks who attack @ProfEmilyOster, whose early analysis and research efforts in this space deserve congratulations
For folks interested in why I reach this conclusion
Please listen to
@vkoganpolisci https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep313
Please listen to
@vkoganpolisci https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep313
And more to come...
