October 30 – Ontario daily update

Data is 100% public and official, and fully cited.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19Ontario

Ontario (population: 14,745,040):

Total deaths by/with covid-19: 3,118 (211 deaths per every million people in ON or 0.02%)

38.8% of Canadian population but 31.0% of Canada deaths by/with covid-19

The two most important metrics to watch: deaths and ICU occupancy.

Ontario now reports:

- 77 in ICU

- 52 in ICU on a ventilator

Ontario now reports:

- 77 in ICU

- 52 in ICU on a ventilator

Ontario now reports:

- 322 in hospital

- 77 in ICU

- 52 in ICU on a ventilator

As data on daily new hospitalizations is not publicly available, this is the average daily net change in hospitalizations (ICU and non-ICU).

Ontario - The proportion of cases (positive test results) resulting in death (yellow line).

Here are the official Ontario ICU models for the “second wave.”

The Ontario Actual line has been extended here (see blue line to right of the star icon) to show progress since the models were released.

Ontario “Second Wave”:

- Growth is not exponential

- May be able to declare a peak when average week-over-week growth reaches zero

The Ontario government's level of testing and testing criteria have likely affected the number of cases (positive test results).

The positivity rate on tests conducted in Ontario (yellow line).

Deaths in Ontario, 2015-19, plus all deaths in 2020, Jan-July.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is what 2020 might look like in Ontario month-to-month if:
1. All-cause deaths (excl. Covid-19) are in line with 2017-19 averages
2. All Covid-19 deaths are single-cause excess deaths

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

Ontario deaths 2017-July 2020. Recent 2020 data may be subject to revision.

Covid-19 has been a crisis in Ontario's long-term care (LTC) system vs. among the general public.

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)

This is the number of deaths by/with covid-19 per million people, among both:

1. the general public, outside the long-term care (LTC) system
2. long-term care (LTC) residents

(n.b. Based on 2020 YTD data for Covid-19 - figures to be revised upward as needed.)