Update thread: Todays numbers are largely... more of the same! Turnout was a bit down from yesterday, but not a ton. Around 135k-140k Dems will have voted today. In person margins for GOP were a few thousand less than yesterday, but mail slowed a bit too. Turnout still high.

When the full report is in, over 7.8 million Floridians will have voted, including ~3.13m Dems. Whether we get to 3.7m depends on if turnout pops on the weekend. My guess is it will, both in in person and mail (dropbox). But we will see. 59% Dem turnout after today fully counted.

Sidenote: My dad asked me on Saturday what to buy in PredictIt for the total amount of early votes in Florida on the report tomorrow. I told him 7.7 to 7.9 million. He bought it, but sold it to early. Could have made more money off of me.

Before we go any further, let's talk Miami-Dade! Do I want to talk Miami-Dade? No. But you all REALLY want to talk Miami-Dade. I know this from the non-stop mentions in my mentions. So everyone is having a freakout about Miami-Dade, but is it warranted?

Miami-Dade turnout is lagging the rest of the state, but not by as much as you would think. Dem turnout there is running about 3% less than the state average. Is that great? No. Is it apocalyptic? Absolutely not. It's 20,000 registered Dems. Out of 5.3 million.

Now every single vote counts in Florida, and 20k Dems certainly does. But we have to view the state holistically. Miami is not Maricopa or Clark County. It is the biggest county, but Florida is a state with a lot of big counties. Broward has the same number of registered Dems.

And Broward is actually outperforming the state average in Dems by a couple of points, which is awesome. That mostly covers for Miami. I'm not saying don't wish for more turnout there. I'm just saying put it in it's proper place. And we still have this weekend for turnout

The truth is, white Dems, especially old white Dems, have largely been driving the turnout. Black Dems and Hispanic Dems have been voting at levels higher than before, but not quite at the same level as white Dems. And Miami has few white Dems.

But anyways, enough Miami talk: Let's talk polls! Polls today were very very very good. 3 major polls came out: Quinnipiac, NBC/Marist, and Monmouth. They were Biden +3, Biden +4, and Biden +6 respectively. Monmouth is the highest quality, and had the best result.

The biggest thing we can glean from these polls related to turnout is exactly what I've been saying to you the last two weeks: much less people are voting election day than previously thought. Quinnipiac and Monmouth both have Eday turnout at 17% of all votes.

That's half of what their polls showed a month ago. Many more people have decided to vote early. They can't vote on election day. What polls are consistently telling us is that while Trump will do well on election day, Biden is doing very well before election day.

Way better than D vs R turnout shows. Because everyone forgets about these pesky NPAs that also have their vote count. There is a lot of evidence that those voting by mail are overwhelmingly Democratic, and possibly even those voting early. Those on eday will be Trump leaning.

So that is why we can still see these big Biden/Trump difference in early voting preference, even though it doesn't look like it to us. NPAs matter. 1.6 million have voted so far.

Polls are consistently showing Biden doing well with NPAs and crossovers.

If that holds true in the electorate, we are in extremely good shape on Nov 3rd. Rs will not have the turnout advantage to overcome those disadvantages. Obviously we can't bank on them. But we can't ignore them. I'm awaiting NYT/Sienna, who always gives the best data breakdown

As far as how the rest of early voting will play out, we are heading into the weekend. It would seem Rs best days are behind them. We will see if tomorrow functions more like a weekday or a weekend day, but we should get strong Dem turnout Sat and Sunday.

And don't forget, Sunday's dropbox mail will be counted on Monday. So we really have 4 full days of mail left (plus a bit on Eday). Dems are at almost 75% returns. We will top 80%. We are not close to done with mail yet. /fin