I have been arguing 3 things since summer about horse-race coverage (1) Bad for US: gamifies an election that will literally determine if millions live or die, suffer or thrive, it may depress voting, and displace news coverage of policy. Hence no real-time predictions from me.

(2) When I do talk horse-race it is because I have been so frustrated w/ *everyone* demanding that the race would tighten over last 3 months, just a matter of how much. I was firm that it was just as likely to widen as tighten: polling has widened a smidge validating my argument.

Here is my map from July where I noted Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Texas were all toss-ups several months before it became fashionable. So I know what I am talking about here, it is just that I do not think it is good for people to obsess about it https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/1281606831765364738?s=20

(3) Before I go further in this thread YOU SHOULD ACT EVERY DAY LIKE THIS ELECTION IS RAZOR TIGHT: VOTE, Get Your Friends/Family/Co-workers to VOTE, donate, volunteer. The republic is counting on YOU!