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Useful thread that I’ll translate from Danish. I don’t necessarily endorse any particular statement. First translation in following tweet. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321705590821920770
“Since March, I have spent a lot of time with Covid-19 data. My conclusion on the causes of national differences is that neither behavior nor politics is nearly as meaningful as it is made out to be. There are no responsible or irresponsible populations.”
"'We' can't steer or control the virus. Various factors can temporarily shift the numbers of infections or deaths, but far more important is what I have called 'health fundamentals.'" https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321705921467289600
The most important health fundamentals:
1) Number of elderly (esp. men) as proportion of population
2) Severely overweight proportion of pop.
3) Proportion of pop. with dark skin in the northern hemisphere
4) Season and climate (and thus also continent) https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321706424326639617
1) Number of elderly (esp. men) as proportion of population
2) Severely overweight proportion of pop.
3) Proportion of pop. with dark skin in the northern hemisphere
4) Season and climate (and thus also continent) https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321706424326639617
I haven't updated my regression analysis, but I'm reasonably convinced that I can explain more than 60% of national variation in Covid-19 deaths with these four health fundamentals. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321707025210986496
[Two links to his blog] https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321707427834798080
Regarding my post from April, where I saw a very close correlation between high elderly populations and high Covid deaths, ... https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321707702104526853
If you look at the post today, you can see there are some nations that did better than the model predicted: i.e., they had relatively few deaths despite many elderly. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321707979973009410
These were nations such as Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic. That is, nations where the growth in Covid-19 cases today is very high. This is a "catch-up" to "health fundamentals" https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321708349340221445
I have also tried to clarify disease spread with several other variables. Most remarkable is that I have had difficulty getting population density to be significant (in any case, not consistently across different model specifications) https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321708770410508288
This indicates to me that both politics and behavior are less important than they are made out to be. The spread of the virus happens no matter what and, at bottom, we can't control it. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321709202436464641
It is likewise remarkable that the data show a very, very clear seasonal pattern almost identical to that of influenza. Therefore, comparisons between e.g. Asia and Europe are meaningless. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321709644356661248
All of this points to the fact that vitamin D deficiency is extremely important, both for the spread and for the lethality of Covid-19. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321709892143644672
All four health fundamentals that I highlight are closely linked with vitamin D deficiency: https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321710181953273856
1) The elderly typically have big problems with Vitamin D deficiency, especially those in nursing homes who seldom come out into the sun. This is especially a problem in Europe and North America, where up to half the dead are nursing home residents. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321710534299975681
2) Likewise, severe obesity is also correlated with vitamin D deficiency. See e.g. here: https://www.livescience.com/26961-obesity-causes-vitamin-d-deficiency.html https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321710982675206144
3) Persons with dark skin (typically immigrants from Africa or the Middle East) who have come to colder or less sunny regions such as Scandinavia often have problems with vitamin D deficiency. In the US, over 80% of blacks have vitamin D deficiency ... https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321711506438893568
... as do over 80% of Somalis in Denmark and Sweden. It is precisely these groups that have been hit hard by Covid-19.
In Europe, all nations with many immigrants, especially Africans, have been hit hard: UK, Belgium, and France. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321711871695740928
In Europe, all nations with many immigrants, especially Africans, have been hit hard: UK, Belgium, and France. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321711871695740928
On seasonality: it's well-known that we in northern Europe don't make enough vitamin D in the winter. Some nations are doing something about this.
Norway and Finland nevertheless have the FEWEST problems with vitamin D deficiency in Europe, thanks to ... https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321712327784308736
Norway and Finland nevertheless have the FEWEST problems with vitamin D deficiency in Europe, thanks to ... https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321712327784308736
... active vitamin D supplementation of foodstuffs in Norway and Finland. We don't do this in Denmark.
Norway and Finland are among the nations with the lowest Covid mortality in Europe. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321712606789439489
Norway and Finland are among the nations with the lowest Covid mortality in Europe. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321712606789439489
The conclusion is that instead of focusing on reducing "the spread", we should focus on health fundamentals.
Concretely, we should focus on groups with identifiable problems with vitamin D deficiency. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321713078585667585
Concretely, we should focus on groups with identifiable problems with vitamin D deficiency. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321713078585667585
Vitamin D is extremely cheap and has no known side effects. It thus seems strange that nowhere have health authorities made recommendations about Vitamin D for this situation. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321713427912470529
Anyway, when I have time, I'll try to update my regressions, but all in all, I feel wholly convinced of the importance of these 4-5 health fundamentals. These are much more important than behavior and politics, so let's focus on these instead.
/The end. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321713813830455297
/The end. https://twitter.com/MaMoMVPY/status/1321713813830455297
