As alluded to earlier, the absentee / early voting data in many key states has started to tighten, the closer we get to Tuesday. We see this in a typical year (which 2020 is not).

Here are some cases where data have improved signif for Republicans over the past week.

1/?

In Georgia, modeled Republicans lead in the in-person Early Vote by almost 5% (a net 103k votes).

Dem lead in all ballots cast stands at 1% (30k votes), a week ago it was more than double that.

Modeled GOP leads +18% amongst group of 500k 16/18 EDay voters left to vote.

In NC, Rs do trail Democrats by 7.4% (300k). A week ago, margin was more than double that size.

In person early voting is close to even, with Dems holding a 2% margin lead.

Like in other states, there are 450k 16/18 EDay voters, which GOP leads w/ by 14%.

In IA, GOP leads amongst the 150k EVs (6.9%), while trailing in the mail-in ballots (typical for Iowa).

There are 375k 16/18 EDay voters, which GOP holds a 30% partisan advantage.

Around a million votes also likely still remain on the table that have yet to be cast.

In FL, GOP trails by a small margin (2.8% - yesterday this was 3.7%). Amongst Early In Person voters, the R partisan advantage is +13.5%.

Since Sunday, 700k+ ballots cast, GOP partisan advantage is 9.1%.

850k 16/18 EDay voters still haven't voted, GOP adv. of +24%.

In AZ, GOP margin slightly trailing Dems by 3.3%. Since a week ago this has closed from nearly 11%.

There are 150k Election Day voters who haven't cast a ballot, GOP leads w/ this group by 31%.

At least a million votes are still on the table.

Point is, many states have 3-4 big days of early voting left before Tuesday.

Late-coming GOP vote margins are eating into the early Dem leads all over.

Since Sunday (R margin):

FL: 9.1% w/ 700k+ cast
GA: 5.5% w/ 435k cast
IA: 6.9% w/ 64k cast
NC: 5.4% w/ 500k cast