2/
I agree with Dr. Kettner that restrictions put in place to flatten COVID numbers can disproportionately harm particular groups. Restrictions can have harmful consequences, and that is very unfortunate and cannot be denied.
3/
However, COVID itself also causes significant and disproportionate harms to specific groups of people - and not just older people. Much of this is caused by systemic racism and societal inequities.
4/
@CarlosdelRio7 summed this up in a talk at #IDWeek2020 last week:

“There is clearly differential risk...when people say we are all in the same boat confronting COVID, some of us are in a yacht, and other people are in a dinghy...I mean it’s clearly not the same boat”
5/
In Manitoba, our COVID numbers are breaking records daily.

We now have COVID outbreaks in at least 3 Manitoba hospitals, and 16 personal care homes https://twitter.com/bkives/status/1321869722451955713
6/
97 people are in hospital, and
17 are in the ICU https://twitter.com/bkives/status/1321866740133990400
7/
The question isn’t ‘are more restrictions needed’ but rather ‘which restrictions do we need to implement now?’ https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/1321929722121670656
8/
Restrictions should not be presented as a false dichotomy between lockdown/no lockdown.

However, sometimes ‘code red’ may be the quickest way to get the virus under control in the shortest amount of time - preserving not only the healthcare system but ALL essential services
9/
While ‘only’ ~20% of ICU beds are currently being occupied by COVID cases, to those in healthcare this number is HIGH in a system where ICU beds are in demand at baseline.
10/
It’s true that these bed utilization numbers are typically much higher during flu season, however this is not all reassuring to me.
Flu season has yet to begin, and will definitely still be coming.
11/
Same goes for non-ICU beds. While we may ‘only’ be using 3% of beds for COVID cases, logistically it’s a lot more complicated. COVID beds require special room precautions to prevent in-hospital spread, which generally means a dedicated ward - you can’t just use any bed
12/
As with ICU beds, hospital beds are ALWAYS in demand. That 3% is already being felt by patients who have to stay in the Emerg b/c there’s no ward bed to transfer to and by docs whose patients are spread out all over the hospital and in Emerg
13/
And DEFINITELY is being felt by our Emerg colleagues, who now have fewer and fewer spots available in Emerg to see and take care of Emerg patients. Which also translates to longer Emerg wait times.
14/
The pressure put on our healthcare system during a ‘typical’ flu season is SUBSTANTIAL - as an ID doc, we brace for it every year. Currently, we’re heading into flu season already at a disadvantage in terms of hospital beds and human resources.

(Aside: get your flu shot!)
15/
As an on-the-ground healthcare provider, I am WORRIED about our rapid rise in cases. Our healthcare system will collapse if this continues unchecked.

Not to mention all the other essential services which rely on healthy, non-quarantining humans to function.
16/
We will get through this together.
It will not be forever.
But we have a long Manitoba winter ahead of us, and to get through it minimally-scathed, we must recognize our current numbers as the red flags they are, and take action.

(And also, get that flu shot!)
You can follow @Lauren_J_MacK.
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