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#GDP numbers got a lot of reaction this morning because…+33%! But context is important, and since I love making charts, here are couple that guide my interpretation. First, rates are not intuitive, so check the levels. GDP had a rapid but partial recovery.
Second, what about the future pace of the recovery? Well, weekly jobless claims have fallen a lot since March, but still exceed 2008 highs.
Taking a closer look…labor force participation has increased from its lows, but is significantly below pre-pandemic levels. For historic comparison, labor force participation currently at 1970s levels.
That is not a coincidence as women and minorities have disproportionately fallen out of the labor force during the pandemic undoing decades gain.
Third, what about the pandemic that drove the contraction in the first place? The weekly growth rate of #covid19 cases is another big number, 41%
. That's clearly not great since...the path of the economy is still tied to the path of the disease.
. That's clearly not great since...the path of the economy is still tied to the path of the disease.
Also, #stlouisfed data.
