Louder for the people at the back. It's false to say that xG says that #ReadingFC are dramatically overperforming. Both the STPod and those saying "xG is rubbish because we're winning" are off.

xG has the most likely result for Reading's games as the 'correct' one on 6/8 games

This has been calculated by taking the xG from Wyscout and adding a suitable value for Meite's open goal vs Blackburn.

This says that the only games where Reading have gotten a 'better than likely' result based on chances created were Watford and Cardiff.

*Obviously* there are a number of contextual factors, including game state and the hot streaks of our forwards - but it's not the case that xG is wrong, nor that certain podcasts are right. It's a stat, that needs to be contextualised - like all stats (e.g. number of shots).

In fact, for most games xG says 'there wasn't much danger of us losing; only question was whether we'd hold on for the win, or go home with the draw', which actually feels.... pretty much right.