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2021 will likely be another annus horribilis. A shift of strategy is needed. If no return to normal is possible early in 2021, https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1321860184990535683">https://twitter.com/DrEricDin... than the only viable pandemic management approach is full #suppression
Suppression/eradication seems to be the smarter and cheaper policy independent from political system, cultural societal differences or geographical conditions. Such basic conclusion was also reached by studies like this one https://go8.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Go8-Road-to-Recovery.pdf">https://go8.edu.au/wp-conten...
It was also official policy in Taiwan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Mongolia from early January on, long before the #WHO has declared a pandemic https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020">https://www.who.int/director-...
And yet, it& #39;s stunning to see that the successes of these countries and others (including e.g. #Uruguay https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/uruguay?country=~URY">https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir... and #Senegal) don& #39;t really inspire a rethinking of pandemic management approaches in Europe and the US.
The horrible results in terms of loss of life and financial damage, to name just a few, do no longer allow claims, the West handles the crisis better in any conceivable way.
The successful strategy to emulate has two main elements. One is a commitment to efficiently combine comprehensive and fast testing, contact tracing and isolation. We know this for a long time https://twitter.com/mayer_iras/status/1240385804159062019">https://twitter.com/mayer_ira...
This "core engine" has nearly collapsed in Europe however. According to Merkel& #39;s statement yesterday, "An estimated 75% of cases cannot be traced anymore" https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-angela-merkel-defends-lockdown-warns-of-difficult-winter-in-germany/a-55430787">https://www.dw.com/en/corona...
The other component concerns the ultimate strategic goal of pandemic management: what should be achieved through social distancing, testing, lockdowns etc.? In East Asia, it was clearly always about the suppression of the virus. And this strategic approach is succeeding.
Today, #Taiwan officially marked 200 days without new infections. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/29/taiwan-domestic-covid-19-infection">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202... And its possible to fly there. Borders are not closed and Taiwan never had a lockdown in the first place
But listening to many Western epidemiologists and virologists, it seems they continue to deny even the possibility of this approach. What& #39;s the reason? Why can& #39;t Germany, Poland or France do what South Korea or Vietnam can do?
Is the pandemic model of influenza still the silent paradigm on which the response to #covid19 is modeled in the West? Is somehow the fateful realization of herd immunity still, thought unacknowledged, the underlying logic of public health policy for lack of alternative ideas?
Or is it #epidemicorientalism in action as @MariusMeinhof https://discoversociety.org/2020/03/21/othering-the-virus/">https://discoversociety.org/2020/03/2... and others https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-outbreak-orientalism-from-the-plague-to-coronavirus-why-is-the-west/">https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/a... suggest https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/148135">https://euobserver.com/coronavir...
Whatever the reason, overconfidence https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/05/29/862602058/opinion-the-ghosts-of-colonialism-are-haunting-the-worlds-response-to-the-pandem?t=1603994399542">https://www.npr.org/sections/... and the lack of willingness to learning and emulate is not only frustrating. It will have immense consequences for societies and politics.
Utter failure of Western democratic societies (with few exceptions) to contain #covid19 should send shock waves across the ranks of leaders and lead to immediate self-critical reflections. Learning from East Asian examples must be a part of this process of renewal.
Its not enough to call for solidarity and rational behavior of citizens, one must have a winning overall strategy. And in the West, we simply don& #39;t have that at this point.
