THREAD: The Battle of the 6.0m Forwards

With early season budgets tight, we looked at which budget forward picks offer the best value so you can afford those high-scoring premium players whilst also giving yourself the best chance of earning some all-important returns.

Ollie Watkins - 6.0m, 4.8%

His hat-trick in the already infamous 7-2 victory over LIV rocketed Watkins in to brief FPL stardom but this was the only game in which he’s returned this season, so it’s not a surprise that approx. 600,000 managers have sold him in the last 2 GWs.

His FPL points tally of 27 flatters to deceive, the 19pt haul in that freak LIV game is carrying his numbers greatly.

If we look at his xGp90 in other 4 games it works out at 0.25 which ranks him outside the top 50 which obviously isn't ideal.

He's also played deeper than is ideal too with Grealish, Trezeguet and even McGinn playing beyond him at times.

With an xAp90 of 0.09 it's not as though he's creating chances for those ahead of him either like others on this list.

He may not be creative but Watkins is athletic, tactically flexible and is getting service from one of the most creative players in the league in Grealish.

I believe Watkins will continue to bag for AVL but there’s a couple of reasons why if I owned him I’d be selling...

Firstly, in the 4 games in which Watkins blanked, he led Villa’s xG charts once (v FUL) and even then he didn’t register a shot on target.

Secondly, Grealish (7.3m) is easily the best AVL attacking asset available and after one goal in two games I'd avoid a double AVL attack.

I don’t want to be too critical of Watkins though.

He has reasonably good fixtures on the horizon, he deserved his hat trick v LIV and he’s still growing into his new role in his maiden PL season.

That being said I would recommend other attackers in this price range.

Karlan Grant - 6.0m, 0.0%

Two games into his Albion career means ultimately it’s too soon to tell if Grant is a viable FPL option, but after lashing in his first goal v BHA (A) and earning 3BP he’s definitely worth a closer look.

Grant's nailed on as WBA’s starting striker and he’s also going to take penalties.

Whilst Albion are yet to win a penalty this year, no team has been fouled more in the PL and individually Diangana and Pereira rank joint 2nd and joint 3rd for fouls drawn this season.

His xGp90 stands at 0.29 which is low but ranks above both Werner and Rashford.

But it’s also worth qualifying this statistic, Grant’s only games have been against BUR (H) and BHA (A) who rank 1st and 2nd in xGC this season (5.6 and 5.9 respectively) yet he still returned.

With a fixture v FUL (A) next, Grant will be facing the side who are 19th in xGC (10.3) and joint 20th in goals conceded (14) so there's a decent chance that he'll return in this relegation six pointer.

But is it worth owning a WBA asset? Well after switching to a 4-3-3, maybe.

Since the switch their numbers have greatly improved.

WBA’s 13 shots v BUR was the most BUR had conceded in an away game this year despite playing at LEI and NEW.

22 of Albion’s 49 PL shots have come since their two-game switch to 4-3-3 and I’d expect Grant to profit from this

WBA are the first team in this PL season to have more possession and touches than BHA at the AMEX - neither CHE or MUN could achieve that feat earlier this season.

For more detail on this tactical switch, read @SteveMadeley’s piece for the Athletic ‘This is WBA 2.0’

I can’t recommend transferring Grant in yet, but keep tabs on his form.

He’s fast, clinical, has an excellent penalty record and will only get better.

WBA assets are rarely appealing but they are getting better both performance wise and statistically; keep open-minded.

Patrick Bamford - 5.9m, 29.4%

He's been the surprise of the season in FPL, doubts over his finishing capabilities are no more after he’s notched 6 in 6 apps including that fine hat-trick v AVL last GW.

His nPxGp90 of 0.71 is the 3rd best in the league behind only Mane and DCL.

Of all the sub 6.0m strikers, Bamford plays in the most creative side. They rank 3rd in both possession (57.7%) and also xG (10.4).

Bielsaball has adapted well in the PL with only LIV getting more shots away than LEE this season.

More FPL specific stats also confirm that Bamford is an excellent pick.

He’s returned in 4 out of 6 GWs, he’s 20 points clear of anyone else in this price range and 8BPs is bettered only by Kane across all forwards.

Sadly he’s not LEE’s penalty taker and he’ll be tested by some strong defences in the next batch of 6 GWs – LEI, WHU and EVE all rank in the top 6 for xGC this season, but I’d still suggest that he’s well worth getting.

Put simply, Bamford has been an incredible asset this year

He’s a product of an attacking and creative system he’ll surely continue to bag goals. His performances are far better than his 5.9m price tag suggests and in terms of value for money it doesn’t get much better.

But that's not to say others aren't worth getting...

Che Adams - 5.8m, 2.0%

Adams is often the forgotten man at SOT behind Ings, but at 5.8m the former Blues forward is relatively good value considering his ability to return on a regular basis.

3 returns in 6 GWs is steady enough and 3BP is good if not great.

Playing with Ings benefits Adams’ game due to his increased assist potential.

Kane (0.56) and Batshuayi (0.38) are the only FPL forwards who have superior xAp90 stats than Adams (0.26)

That’s Adams’ USP in this price range, he creates and he gets goal scoring chances.

He’s 12th in the league for npxG+xAp90, his xG total of 2.3 is only 0.3 less than Ings and his two assists is joint 1st among strikers in this price range.

Sadly Adams does miss big chances, 4 this season to be exact and that leads the league. He could be frustrating to own.

SOT are an in-form side having scored 7 in 3 games, only AVL and TOT have more (both 8).

His low ownership and promising xG and xA means Adams is good value with inviting fixtures v AVL (A), NEW (H) and WOL (A) I’d be shocked if he didn't return – AVL rank 20th for xGC at home.

I’d say I prefer Bamford as a sub-6.0m player but taking a risk on Adams has a lot of upside especially if you can’t afford Ings and you want a SOT attacking asset, don’t be afraid to put your faith back in Adams.

But there is one budget option I won't be signing anytime soon...

Aleksandar Mitrovic - 5.8m, 9.2%

Possibly the biggest early season trap and an immense source of frustration for those who opted for Mitro early on, but his excellent record in the Championship, penalty-taking duties and PL experience was definitely inviting.

Two goals v LEE in GW2 is his only return of the season and the missed penalty vs SHU in GW5 only compounded a miserable start to his PL return.

What about his statistics though, has the Serbian been unlucky? Is he worth holding on to?

Mitro’s xGp90 of 0.70 places him above the likes of fellow penalty takers Salah and Kane but his nPxGp90 of 0.41 is slightly less impressive.

3 big chances missed this season suggests poor form in front of goal which is corroborated by Mitro’s -1.7 G-xG, the worst in the PL.

This large underperformance is very worrying considering the form of the other strikers on this list: Bamford: +2.2, Grant +0.5, Watkins -0.3, Adams -0.3.

Things won't get easier for him though, Fulham are already struggling with very tough fixtures coming up.

Besides their vital clash v WBA (H) next up, FUL play WHU, EVE, LEI, MCI and LIV.

I would expect Mitro to be strangled of service so I would be selling fast if I was an owner but not until GW8. I’d bank that FT and risk him vs WBA before deciding who I'd rather bring in.

All in all there's value to be had in these budget options already and I think they're flying under the radar.

You can't predict anything this year but I'll certainly be taking a punt on one of these options as I look to free up some budget for those big names like Kane and KDB.

These our own opinions and analysis but let us know what your opinions in the comments, we hoped you enjoyed it and learned a thing or two.

RTs and Likes are always greatly appreciated and thanks for the support!