People often say "Teams shouldn't draft an RB early. You can always find 1 later. Look at James Robinson."

When you look at the current landscape of RBs that is actually fairly misleading.

Let's have a chat as we look at all 32 NFL teams

Typically, obviously not always, this is how it works out

1st rounders- Studs. Think of your Barkleys, Zeke's etc
2nd rounders- Longterm starters with elite potential. Think of your JT, Cook, etc
3rd rounders- highend backups/low end starters
4th-UDFA rounders- bench players

When I say typically, I mean on average. I'm sure someone saw that tweet and sprinted down to the comments to point out Kamara and call names without finishing.

THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS

Lets look at all 32 teams and grade their RB room and see if they have the future "locked down"

Starting with the AFC East

Bills- Moss and Singletary. 3rd rounders. Future locked down? No. Could be in RB market in offseason

Jets- Gore 2nd and Perine 4th. Future locked down? lol No

Patriots- Michel/Harris- 1st and 4th. Future locked down? No.

Miami- Gaskin 7th rounder. Is he the future? Likely not. No one believes it even as solid as he plays. Not great, but he's very serviceable. There's absolutely certainty and we can expect them to be in the market

Chiefs- CEH 1st Bell 2nd. Future locked down? Yes

Raiders- Jacobs 1st. Future locked down

Broncos- Gordon 1st. Lindsay UDFA. Future locked down? Yes

Chargers- Austin Ekeler- UDFA Kelley 4th Jackson 7th. Future locked down? Sure but could use a better fit with Ekeler

Steelers- James Conner 3rd. Snell 4th. Future Locked down? No. Could be in market. Likely will

Ravens- Ingram 1st Dobbins 2nd. Future locked down? Yes

Browns- Chubb 2nd Hunt 3rd. Yes, next.

Bengals- Mixon 2nd. Yes locked down

Titans- Henry 2nd. Yes

Colts- JT 2nd Yes

Texans- David Johnson. 3rd. He's signed but man you know they want out from it. So, technically yes? But no at the same time

Jaguars- Robinson- UDFA man you'd think he's the guy but there's still some doubt. But will say yes

Eagles- Sanders 2nd. Yes

Cowboys- Zeke 1st. Yes

Giants- Saquon 1st. Yes

Washington- Gibson 3rd. Future is locked down.

Seahawks- Carson 7th. Future locked down? No. He's often hurt and we can expect them to be in the market

Cardinals- Drake 4th Edmonds 4th. Future locked down? No, expect them to be in the RB market
Rams- Henderson 3rd. Akers 2nd. Brown 6th. Future is locked down

49ers- Mostert UDFA, Hasty UDFA, Coleman 2nd, Mckinnon 3rd round. Future locked down? No. Most, if not, all of those guys won't be on the roster next year

Packers- Jones 4th. Future locked down? No, but they need to sign him NOW

Bears- Montgomery 3rd. It's probably locked down but he doesn't ever look good.

Vikings- Cook 2nd. Yes future is locked down

Lions- Swift 2nd. Yes future is locked down

Bucs- Rojo 2nd. Fournette 1st. Vaughn 3rd. Future is locked down contrary to some beliefs

Panthers- CMC yes he's got the future locked down

Falcons- Gurley 1st. Doubtful. Probably won't extend him

Kamara- 4th. Future is locked down

So, when we go through and look at it

Teams starting RBs by draft capital on team

1st- 9. 7 are locked down
2nd- 9. all 9 are locked down with the exception of Gore lol
3rd- 5. only 2 are considered "locked down"
4th- 6. 3 of 6 are locked down. Counting Jones as "locked down"

5th-6th 0. 0 starting or immediate backups on rosters.
7th. 2. 1 of the 3 is locked down. And the 1 that is "locked down" is Justin Jackson.
UDFA. 3. There are 3 teams with UDFA as starters and 2 are locked in for the future (with me giving Robinson the assumption nod)

Totals

1st-3rd rounders. 23 of 32 starters. (18 are "locked down")
4th and beyond. 11 of 32 starters. (5 of 11 are "locked down")

I know we're above 32 but there aren't just 32 starters.

71% of the league has 1st-3rd round draft capital. And 78% of them are the "future" of their team at RB

34% of the league has RBs drafted 4th and beyond that are the starter. And only 45% of those are "locked down" for the future.

In conclusion: what does this mean? Draft Capital for RBs matter and it's not as easy to "draft a stud later in the draft" as it seems on the surface!

RBs Matter