1/ We've entered the "Fourth Turning."

The final act in a drama beginning at the end of WWII.

The old social order combusts and gives birth to new political, social, and economic structures. Let's explore through a #Bitcoin lens

https://www.brandonquittem.com/bitcoin-rhythms-of-history/

Thread

2/ This essay expands on concepts presented in The Fourth Turning by @HoweGeneration.

Economic inequality, failing institutions, cultural decay, and the rise of populism were all predicted (and are easily explained) by this theory.

Let's dive in...

3/ Modern humans view time as a linear phenomenon. A steady march of progress.

However, life doesn’t progress linearly. Instead, it follows a natural rhythm, a circle of life if you will.

4/ Ancient man observed a human cycle called the “Saeculum.” Means “a long human life” or roughly 90 years.

Each 90-year period is divided into 4 stages (Turnings) which each last ~22 years.

Turnings have well-defined "moods" which forecasts how society responds to catalysts.

5/ Each Turning produces a well-defined generation of people.

Generations embody 1 of 4 archetypes that follow in a specific, repeating, pattern.

6/ There is a symbiotic relationship between history and generations.

The historic moment imprints itself onto the new generation. Then when that generation grows up it changes history. Repeat ad infinitum.

7/ We're in the middle of a 4th Turning.

* 1st Turning (The American High) - 1946-1964
* 2nd Turning (Consciousness Revolution) - 1964-1984
* 3rd Turning (Culture Wars) - 1984-2008
* 4th Turning (Millennial Crisis) - 2008-2030?

Expect maximum chaos for another 10 years or so.

8/ Anatomy of a Fourth Turning (Crisis)

Society needs crisis periods. They serve as brush fires to clean out the decrepit institutions to make way for new growth.

*Although not required, Fourth Turnings historically end with total war. (WWII, Civil War, American Revolution)

9/ Supply and Demand for Order determine the direction society is heading.

When the delta between Supply and Demand for Order is widest, we see societal shifts...

2nd Turnings = Awakenings (internal change)

4th Turnings = Crisis (external change)

10/ The previous 4th Turning (1929-1945) rhymes with today...

* 1929 stock market crash vs '08 global financial crisis

* Social decay, populism, young people living w/ parents

* unsustainable debt + massive government spending

* Bretton Woods vs Bretton Woods 2.0 / CBDCs

11/ Every 4th Turning in the last 500 years ended with war

Destined for war? Not necessarily. War represents "maximum urgency to mobilize society for a specific purpose."

Wartime conditions = increased central planning, populous willing to sacrifice, easy to confiscate wealth

12/ Potential [war-like] Climaxes before 2030:

Covid - not enough to mobilize the nation?

Civil War - increasingly likely (h/t @IwriteOK)

Total War - tensions w/ China, battle over global reserve currency?

Black Swan - terrorism, cyber-attack, financial collapse

13/ Individualism vs Collectivism

During Fourth Turnings the temptation is to succumb to collectivism (cancel culture, UBI)

but we must not slide into totalitarianism

Only 2 ways to coordinate societies at scale… by force or by free markets @naval https://twitter.com/naval/status/1300847149232484352

14/ Bitcoin improves society’s ability to coordinate through free markets, rather than state-enforced violence.

Bitcoin is the "new institution" that society must rally around to preserve freedom during a Fourth Turning.

If not, I fear we'll tumble towards totalitarianism.

15/ Bitcoin is a life raft during the great fiat flood

Adopting Bitcoin early means states and individuals will:

* benefit from Bitcoin’s price appreciation
* avoid the fate of their local fiat currency
* headstart in a new paradigm

The flood is coming, get on the damn raft

16/ Bitcoin is Fourth Turning Money

Born at the dawn of the Fourth Turning (2009), engineered for maximum survivability, and will come of age as the global financial order is rearranged. https://twitter.com/Bquittem/status/1138217907148730368?s=20

17/ Fiat Financial system was born in peacetime, sheltered by central bankers, never faced adversity, and ill-equipped for 4th Turning volatility.

"Oh, you think the Fourth Turning is your ally. But you merely adopted the Fourth Turning; I was born in it, molded by it" -Bitcoin

18/ Central bankers are out of ammo, enter CBDCs

They'll enable the central banks to surgically "manage" the economy

Simultaneously inject cash in one account while taxing another (negative interest rates). Send UBI directly from the Fed to the plebs https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1317836119149580288?s=20

19/ CBDC / Bretton Woods 2 / Bancor 2.0 is coming

It's the weaponization of behavioral economics through an all-powerful, spyware, closed-loop, financial system.

Apparently, the banking class has no upper limit on hubris.

20/ Bitcoin is the perfect collateral

And the perfect settlement medium between nations. Scarce, verifiable, doesn't require trusting counterparty

I fear bancor 2.0 will be attempted, but Bitcoin is the future reserve asset

The only question is: will Bitcoin be ready by 2030?

22/ The pieces are set, but the game's not over.

Yes, we're trending towards totalitarianism. But all is not lost.

We still have #Bitcoin to serve as protection against tyranny. A beacon of hope during the cold dark night.

Will we end in Tragedy or Triumph?

END/ By 2030, we'll complete this 4th Turning.

We'll have winners and losers. Global order will be reshaped.

Hopefully, we begin the next saeculum on a sturdy foundation enabling a new era of prosperity.

Fasten your seatbelts... This decade will define the next 100 years.

PS/ How to protect yourself during a Fourth Turning (be antifragile)

Protect your wealth with Bitcoin (self custody)
Minimize debt
Multiple sources of income
Acquire 2nd passport @KatieAnanina
Find a citadel (community)
Be more self-reliant
Learn digital privacy

24/ Acknowledgements:

Thanks to @HoweGeneration for inspiring me with your ideas. I've learned so much. We'll talk about your stance on Bitcoin another day :)

Editors: @Breedlove22, @Mark_MNLocal, @jevidon, @DatBoyDirtyLeth, @StevenOustecky, and @dwaltchack

25/ Inspiration and mentions in the essay

@LynAldenContact, @RaoulGMI, @LukeGromen, @naval, @mattwridley, @IwriteOK, @TuurDemeester, @pierre_rochard, @michael_saylor, @SahilBloom, @coryklippsten, @nvk, @KatieAnanina, @dergigi, @aantonop, @ttmygh