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Quick thread with 4 reasons why 2020 is not 2016.
in 2016, Trump briefly led Clinton twice in the final five monts and trailed by just 3.2 going into Election Day.
In 2020, Trump has *never* led Biden let alone get within 4 points of him nationally, and trails today by 7.5.
in 2016, Trump briefly led Clinton twice in the final five monts and trailed by just 3.2 going into Election Day.
In 2020, Trump has *never* led Biden let alone get within 4 points of him nationally, and trails today by 7.5.
The second reason is a big one: Favorable ratings.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a -12.6 favorable rating on Election Day.
In 2020, Biden is a +6.4 against Trump's -13.2 net rating.
Trump has been trying to bring Biden's favorables down all year, but it's simply hasn't worked.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton had a -12.6 favorable rating on Election Day.
In 2020, Biden is a +6.4 against Trump's -13.2 net rating.
Trump has been trying to bring Biden's favorables down all year, but it's simply hasn't worked.
The third reason 2020 isn't 2016: State polls.
As @Nate_Cohn has been detailing, even if we see a 2016 sized polling error in 2020, Biden still wins MI/PA/AZ/FL/GA/WI/NE-2.
Trump doesn't just need a polling error like 2016- he needs one that makes 2016 look small in comparison.
As @Nate_Cohn has been detailing, even if we see a 2016 sized polling error in 2020, Biden still wins MI/PA/AZ/FL/GA/WI/NE-2.
Trump doesn't just need a polling error like 2016- he needs one that makes 2016 look small in comparison.
The 4th reason 2020 isn't 2016: District polls.
As @Redistrict has pointing out, in 2016 there were warning signs at the district level that it was close, but they were overshadowed by the national/state polls.
In 2020, that's simply not happening. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320545652162572288
As @Redistrict has pointing out, in 2016 there were warning signs at the district level that it was close, but they were overshadowed by the national/state polls.
In 2020, that's simply not happening. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320545652162572288
As a bonus 5th reason to this thread: Undecided voters.
In 2016, there were 10% that said they were undecided or voting 3rd party going into Election Day.
In 2020, that number is just 5% on the RCP average today.
Makes it really hard for Trump to turn around a 7.5% deficit.
In 2016, there were 10% that said they were undecided or voting 3rd party going into Election Day.
In 2020, that number is just 5% on the RCP average today.
Makes it really hard for Trump to turn around a 7.5% deficit.
A bonus 6th reason why 2020 is not 2016:
In 2016, Clinton held leads but was not at 50 or above in the polls nationally or the key swing states.
Biden is currently at or above 50 nationally as well as in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and is close in Florida as well.
In 2016, Clinton held leads but was not at 50 or above in the polls nationally or the key swing states.
Biden is currently at or above 50 nationally as well as in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and is close in Florida as well.
