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Hey, I wrote a new [THREAD] 
I looked into the stats from the first 6 GWs of the season focusing on a few teams of interest
Man City’s bad start
Everton & Spurs prospects
West Ham and Leeds defenders
I looked into the stats from the first 6 GWs of the season focusing on a few teams of interest
Man City’s bad start Everton & Spurs prospects West Ham and Leeds defenders
MAN CITY Since the start of 2017 this is the first time City have gone 5 straight PL games without scoring 2.0xG or more. Their worst similar spell last season was a 3-game run.
City’s xG in the first 5 games of the season:
1.9, 0.9, 1.5, 1.4, 1.1
So far they've averaged 1.38xG, their lowest 5 GW average at any point since the start of 2017.
Their lowest 5 GW average last year (1.76xG) came in GW12-16 when they had a tough fixture run vs MUN, CHE and LIV
Their average over the 19/20 season was 2.44xG for comparison.
Their lowest 5 GW average last year (1.76xG) came in GW12-16 when they had a tough fixture run vs MUN, CHE and LIV
Their average over the 19/20 season was 2.44xG for comparison.
In Champions League they have scored 6 goals in 2 games, but none of the two games saw them score 2.0xG or above either.
In last seasons CL group stage they scored 3.0, 3.5, 3.5 xG in their opening 3 games. Over all 9 CL games in the 19/20 season they averaged 2.5xG.
In last seasons CL group stage they scored 3.0, 3.5, 3.5 xG in their opening 3 games. Over all 9 CL games in the 19/20 season they averaged 2.5xG.
The lack of high xG performances from City could be caused by a combination of things. Almost no pre-season, fairly tough opening games, Aguero/Jesus/KDB injuries and the loss of Silva could all be factors.
City has averaged an incredible 100 goals a season over a 3 year period. I would still be surprised if that dropped significantly this year.
It's likely a question of when they turn up, not if. And when they turn up it’s a fantastic opportunity...
It's likely a question of when they turn up, not if. And when they turn up it’s a fantastic opportunity...
...to have low ownership elite players from the best attacking team in the league.
With games against LIV(H) and TOT(A) after their trip to SHU it may be worth waiting for signs of improvement before investing though.
With games against LIV(H) and TOT(A) after their trip to SHU it may be worth waiting for signs of improvement before investing though.
SPURS & EVERTON After starting the season with a bang and currently sitting at 2nd and 4th for xG in the PL this yr, both teams have cooled down a bit in recent weeks
Over the last 2 GWs:
Only 6 teams have a lower xG than TOT Only 3 teams has a lower xG than EVE
Both have performed at a Top 4 level average xG so far (1.72 for EVE, 1.9 for TOT). Will they now start regressing towards their level from last year (1.3 EVE, 1.21 TOT)?
Both teams have favorable fixtures in the short term, but FPL mangers will soon be faced with a decision...
Both teams have favorable fixtures in the short term, but FPL mangers will soon be faced with a decision...
...when both teams fixtures toughen up.
If you got attackers from these teams, it's an easy keep. If you got no attackers from one of the teams, it’s still worth buying one. If you already got one of their attackers, I would not be desperate to double up atm.
If you got attackers from these teams, it's an easy keep. If you got no attackers from one of the teams, it’s still worth buying one. If you already got one of their attackers, I would not be desperate to double up atm.
KANE & SON Kane has scored 0.84 goals p90 from an expected 0.68. This is just in line with his 3 year average of 0.70 goals p90 from an expected 0.57.
We would expect Kane to overperform by 23% and he has overperformed by 24%. Very much sustainable.
Son has scored 1.55 goals p90 from an expected 0.53. This is way above his 3 year average of 0.46 goals p90 from an expected 0.36.
We should expect Son to overperform by 28%, he has overperformed by 192%!
We should expect Son to overperform by 28%, he has overperformed by 192%!
One would expect Sons goal scoring rate to drop off, and therefore Kane's assist rate as well with 7 out of Sons 8 goals being served by Kane.
Both players are still great options even if they don’t keep up their freakish average of 2 Goal Involvements per game.
Both players are still great options even if they don’t keep up their freakish average of 2 Goal Involvements per game.
LEEDS Don’t be fooled by Leeds sitting at 3rd for worst xG conceded this year. After a chaotic start to the season conceding 6 goals in the first two matches vs Liverpool and Fulham, Leeds have now gone to concede 2 goals in the last four averaging a decent 1.3 xG against
Excluding TAA and Robertson, Dallas 1st for shots and 2nd for xG and Ayling 1st for xGI among all defenders in the PL so far. At 4.5m they both offer great value for money.
WEST HAM Despite having the PL’s toughest opening fixture run West Ham are 3rd best for xG conceded and 6th for goals scored! After GW7 their fixtures gets a lot easier and looks like a perfect time to invest.
Plenty of FPL managers are set to bring in Antonio if he can shake of his injury, but their defence may be worth considering as well. Cresswell and Masuaku are both among the top underlying-stats performers among 5m or cheaper defenders and could be interesting options.
SOUTHAMPTON In the 4 games vs non-top 6 sides Southampton have conceded only 1 goal and averaging an impressive 0.43xG conceded. Against Palace, Burnley, West Brom and Everton their xG conceded has been 0.7, 0.5, 0.1 and 0.4.
Over the second part of the 19/20 season only 3 teams earned more points than Southampton. This year they find themself sitting at joint 6th after the first six games of the season despite losing their two first games vs Palace and Tottenham.
BRIGHTON No team in the league has a lower xG conceded after 6 gameweeks than Brighton. Very impressive considering they have faced Man Utd, Chelsea and Everton. Brighton have been unfortunate to concede 12 goals from an expected 5.9 this season, leaving them with...
...the highest xGC delta of any team so far (-6.1) and at 16th position in the league table. If they can keep up this level of defensive performance the points should start coming sooner rather than later.
ASTON VILLA Was the Liverpool game just a freak outlier?
In the other 4 games Villa has played this season they’ve averaged 1.1 xG vs Sheff Utd, Fulham, Leicester and Leeds. Last year they averaged 1.05 xG in total.
They’ve got a great fixture run coming up, but one attacker from Villa should be sufficient for now. They need to prove that they can replicate the attacking potential they displayed versus Liverpool before I’d consider doubling up.
