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Welcome to the bright side of Brexit. We know disruption is looming, but there are opportunities... 1/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-29/how-leaving-the-eu-could-help-britain-s-economy?sref=yMmXm5Iy w/ @DeirdreHipwell @lucy_meakin
(Caveat: these benefits sit alongside an array of negative consequences in the form of worse access and higher costs of doing business with the EU. But if you follow @Brexit, you knew that already. So let's focus on potential positives...) 2/
(Also: it would be helpful if the govt did a better job of pointing out concrete, real-world examples of Brexit gains that go beyond rhetorical flourishes and are undisputed wins only possible outside the EU. This took a fair amount of leg work. End of preamble!) 3/
Rules & Taxes -- the U.K. could go for a more growth-friendly regulatory and tax environment. The EU fears a near-shore competitor of this type, says Mark Price, former deputy chairman of John Lewis 4/
Plus it could take a more permissive approach than the EU on emerging technologies, like GM foods and genome technology, says @julianHjessop. In aviation, the UK would be free to cut air passenger duty on return leg of domestic flights (h/t @charlie_ryan1) 5/
Financial services -- Insurers will be outside Solvency II rules, so they may soon be able to invest in a wider range of assets and take on more risk, says @BritishInsurers. And IPO market could get a boost if EU's 8m euro ceiling on retail investor participation is scrapped 6/
Trade deals -- the UK says it can sign FTAs that better suit its interests. Clearest win so far = easier access for data and financial services in the Japan accord 7/
A trade deal with the U.S. could create opportunities for U.K. services companies, and may bring greater variety and cheaper food if Britain accepts agricultural products as part of any agreement 8/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/what-trump-johnson-want-from-u-s-u-k-trade-deal-quicktake?sref=yMmXm5Iy
Tariff policy -- the UK can set its own WTO tariffs, and can cut duties on products that aren't important for British industry, which would benefit consumers. Heck, they could even unilaterally cut tariffs on soy sauce... 9/
Fishing -- whatever happens in the EU talks, British fishermen are likely to increase their catch. Though only a small part of the economy (0.12%), Iceland shows a model of how the industry could grow.. 10/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/fish-are-chips-in-post-brexit-trade-bargaining-quicktake?sref=yMmXm5Iy
Domestic industry -- risk in EU supply chains because of new red tape and border delays may encourage manufacturers to source more inputs locally, says Andrew Underwood at @kpmguk. And new state aid freedoms could help Johnson `level up' poorer parts of Britain 11/
Red tape -- Brexit creates a structural opportunity for customs brokers and logistics specialists. There's an awful lot of bureaucracy due to Brexit, hundreds of millions of customs declarations annually, and someone's going to get paid to handle it 12/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-18/brexit-red-tape-is-jackpot-for-customs-boffins-as-demand-surges?sref=yMmXm5Iy
You'll notice there's a lot of `may' and 'could' in all this - much depends on what the U.K. actually does with the powers it regains from the EU. And the choices won't happen in a vacuum - other countries will respond, there will be downsides... 13/
For example - having the ability to set your own rules also means companies potentially have to comply with two sets of regulations -- UK and EU -- to operate in both markets. Which means duplicate costs, bureaucratic headache.. 14/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-24/pricey-beef-lasagne-mattresses-burned-twice-among-brexit-risks?sref=yMmXm5Iy
And being able to sign your own trade deals is good. But the UK was already part of many deals through EU membership, and economists don't think the new agreements will compensate for losses from leaving the bloc 15/ https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1280415795709968384
And then there's the looming chaos at the border, which is seriously worrying officials in the Cabinet Office, DEFRA, DIT, DfT etc 16/ https://twitter.com/Joe_Mayes/status/1308480972531347460
But you've heard all this stuff before, so I will not further ruin the optimism. Look to the bright side... ends/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-29/how-leaving-the-eu-could-help-britain-s-economy?sref=yMmXm5Iy
