Thread by @OldNorthStPol, North Carolina's accepted absentee ballots, through 10-28:Total Ballots: 3,867,82181% of 2016's total [...]

North Carolina's accepted absentee ballots, through 10-28:

Total Ballots: 3,867,821

81% of 2016's total 4.7M ballots cast

Absentee OneStop (In-Person): 3,015,819

Absentee by mail: 852,002

Accepted absentee vote methods by party registration numbers

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots, thru 10-28:

Comparison of 2016 to 2020 cumulative daily totals of mail and onestop (in-person) absentee ballots by days out from Election Day

(FYI: mail request deadline has past; in-person ends on Day 3, Sat., Oct. 31).

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee (mail & in-person) ballots, thru 10-28:

Comparison between 2016 daily total ballots to 2020 daily total ballots, by days out from Election Day

Additional processing by counties tend to adjust daily numbers after initial day reporting

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC daily accepted absentee onestop (in-person) ballots, thru 10-28:

Comparison of daily numbers between 2016 and 2020 based on days out from Election Day for *just* in-person (absentee onestop) early votes

AOS = 78% of NC's total absentee ballots so far

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC daily accepted absentee by mail ballots, thru 10-28:

Comparison of daily numbers between 2016 and 2020 based on days out from Election Day for *just* mail-in early votes

ABMs = 22% of NC's 2020 total absentee ballots so far

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots, thru 10-28:

By vote methods (absentee by mail and absentee onestop/in-person)

and

by party registration %s within each method and total of absentee ballots (early votes)

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots, thru 10-28:

Both absentee by mail + absentee onestop/in-person cumulative daily %s by party registrations (solid lines)

compared to 2016's cumulative daily %s by party registrations (dashed lines)

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots, thru 10-28:

Each vote method's (by mail & in-person) cumulative daily %s by party registrations (solid columns)

compared to 2016's cumulative daily %s by parties (dashed lines) for that vote method

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC has 7.3M+ registered voters

Over half--53%--of NC's total registered voters having already "banked their ballot" for Nov. 3

Within party registrations:

Reg Democrats: 57% have voted
Republicans: 55%
Unaffiliated: 47%

#ncpol #ncvotes

2016's NC electorate saw 69% of registered voters cast ballots (total of 4.7M votes)

This year, 69% of 7.3M = 5M potential voters

If NC's Nov. 3 electorate is 5M (total # of ballots cast):

3.8M+ represents 77% of NC's potential electorate has already voted

#ncpol #ncvotes

It's likely that NC's registered voter turnout will now be higher than 69%.

If it's 72%, thats equal to 5.2M voters

If so, then NC is at 74% of the electorate with these 3.8M absentee ballots.

If it's 75% = 5.4M

If so, then NC is at 71% of that electorate.

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee (both mail & in-person) ballots, thru 10-28:

66% from White Non-Hispanic
20% from Black Non-Hispanic
2% from Hispanic/Latino
4% from all other races Non-Hispanic

by Voter Race-Ethnicity and Party Registration within

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots (both mail & in-person), thru 10-28, by generation cohorts & daily % change:

39% Boomers
25% Gen X
19% Millennials (+1)
11% Greatest/Silent
7% Gen Z (+1)

Gen Z + Millennials + Gen X = 51%

by Generations & Party Registrations

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots (mail & in-person), thru 10-28, by voter regions:

29% Urban Central City Voters
27% Urban Suburb Voters
25% Surrounding Suburban County Voters
19% Rural County Voters

by Regions & Party Registrations within each

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots, thru 10-28:

Voters who voted in 2016's election (& vote method) OR registered in/after 2016, by party reg

Overall:

55%: voted 2016 absentee 1stop/in-person
3%: 2016 absentee by mail
17%: 2016 Election Day
25%: 'new' voters

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC total accepted absentee ballots, thru 10-28:

2020 cumulative daily total #s and %s by party registration, based on days out from Election Day

#ncpol #ncvotes

As of 10-28, of NC's 7.3M+ registered voters

3.8M+ early votes = 53% of NC's total registered voters having already "banked a ballot" for Nov. 3

Within voter race-ethnicity:

55% of White & 51% of Black voters have voted

36% of Hispanic/Latino have voted

#ncpol #ncvotes

Switching to NC's absentee by mail ballots ONLY, thru 10-28:

852K have been returned & accepted out of current 1.4M+ requested

Party registrations within requests & returned/accepted

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC absentee by mail ballots that have been returned and accepted vs. those still outstanding, through 10-28

numbers by party registration

This may be important to watch come Nov. 3 for potential ABMs that are outstanding & could be mailed by 5 PM Nov. 3

#ncpol #ncvotes

NC absentee by mail ballots, through 10-28:

Requested, Returned & Accepted/Cured, and the "accepted rate" for all party registrations and total accepted rate based on requests so far

#ncpol #ncvotes

@NCSBE data for this thread can be found at:

https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=ENRS/2020_11_03/

#ncvotes #ncpol

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