This is an attractive visualization about COVID transmission risks. But I'm puzzled about something. With risks this high, how could we have R0 around 2.5 or 3?

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Lots of people suggesting that the answer lies in the dispersion factor k.

That is *absolutely* not what the article suggests. In the image below, the claim is only consistent with a very high k value.

If the answer lies in the dispersion factor, it would *possible* that the large number of people shown in the data graphics would be infected, but with high probability, zero or at least very few would be in each of these scenarios.

To summarize disjoint discussions that have occurred in various threads, these diagrams seem to be conditioned on patient zero being highly infectious. Thus they illustrate what can happen in a bad situation, not what does happen every time an infected person comes into a room.

That makes sense. Otherwise it is very hard to reconcile the diagram with five out of six people getting infected in four hours with household secondary attack rates that tend to be 30% or far lower.

Since there seems to be confusion:

1) I am not disputing the importance of aerosol transmission.

2) I am not disagreeing with the prescriptions in the article.

I just think it’s misleading not to explain that most infected people transmit like this briefly if ever.

I strongly believe that accurate risk communication is important in developing and maintaining public trust. Sending the wrong message for the right reasons is a mistake.

In this case, there’s zero upside to not clarifying—the implications for control are the same.

Chapter 12 of the CDC Field Epidemiology Manual addresses public communication, and describes best practices *after* an interview.

Assess whether your message was presented accurately, and follow up with requests for correction if it was not.

With the @elpaisinenglish story, it seems that @jljcolorado is doing this exactly right—both by contacting the reporters and with the thread linked below. https://twitter.com/jljcolorado/status/1321978354157998080