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This an interesting topic that Brian is tackling. What is the optical mix of leagues for bestball players. I tried to drudge up some memories from business school to help think through this. Basically we need a decision matrix to look at the likely outcomes. Thread... https://twitter.com/FantasyBestBal1/status/1321613673371258880">https://twitter.com/FantasyBe...
One massive assumption with this is that we can actually reasonably estimate how a player will do in a specific format. We are going to go ahead & make that assumption. I am going to use the results that Brian generously shared from last season to illustrate the decision process
If we have $1,000 to spend and we can only spend it on $10 leagues. Based on our anticipated winning rate which league format should we put our money into?
Side Note - these ranges are estimates we obviously could quibble over the numbers. Its more about the concept
Side Note - these ranges are estimates we obviously could quibble over the numbers. Its more about the concept
Starting with the 2x format. We expect a tight range of outcomes. 80% cash rate 80% of the time. 70% cash rate 10% of the time & 90% cash rate 10% of the time. Weighting those outcomes, we come to an expected profit of $600. outcomes are +/- 12.5% of Avg.
If we play only in the Top 3 style league paying out 7.5x to the winner. We have a broader range of outcomes. with the range being roughly +/-28% of avg. We assumed cash in 35% of these leagues as the baseline, weighted 50% to 1st, 25% to 2nd, & 25% to 3rd. Exp. profit ~$620.
Here is playing in all 10x leagues. Big range of winnings +/- 50% of the projected cash number. We have the only format where our "worst" case scenario is no profit. But we also have the highest ceiling. Expected profit $1000.
Based on these simple numbers the right decision would be to do exclusively $10 dollar 10x leagues. With almost a $400 lead over the other formats. Obviously it all comes back to how confident your are in the cashing numbers and each person& #39;s individual historical results.
This is definitely not the only way but it is a logical/consistent way to approach decision making if your goal is to enter the most efficient format with your dollars.
