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This an interesting topic that Brian is tackling. What is the optical mix of leagues for bestball players. I tried to drudge up some memories from business school to help think through this. Basically we need a decision matrix to look at the likely outcomes. Thread... https://twitter.com/FantasyBestBal1/status/1321613673371258880
One massive assumption with this is that we can actually reasonably estimate how a player will do in a specific format. We are going to go ahead & make that assumption. I am going to use the results that Brian generously shared from last season to illustrate the decision process
If we have $1,000 to spend and we can only spend it on $10 leagues. Based on our anticipated winning rate which league format should we put our money into?
Side Note - these ranges are estimates we obviously could quibble over the numbers. Its more about the concept
Side Note - these ranges are estimates we obviously could quibble over the numbers. Its more about the concept
Starting with the 2x format. We expect a tight range of outcomes. 80% cash rate 80% of the time. 70% cash rate 10% of the time & 90% cash rate 10% of the time. Weighting those outcomes, we come to an expected profit of $600. outcomes are +/- 12.5% of Avg.
If we play only in the Top 3 style league paying out 7.5x to the winner. We have a broader range of outcomes. with the range being roughly +/-28% of avg. We assumed cash in 35% of these leagues as the baseline, weighted 50% to 1st, 25% to 2nd, & 25% to 3rd. Exp. profit ~$620.
Here is playing in all 10x leagues. Big range of winnings +/- 50% of the projected cash number. We have the only format where our "worst" case scenario is no profit. But we also have the highest ceiling. Expected profit $1000.
Based on these simple numbers the right decision would be to do exclusively $10 dollar 10x leagues. With almost a $400 lead over the other formats. Obviously it all comes back to how confident your are in the cashing numbers and each person's individual historical results.
This is definitely not the only way but it is a logical/consistent way to approach decision making if your goal is to enter the most efficient format with your dollars.
