1) Montreal’s #COVID19 testing positivity rate has increased to 5.6% from 5.2% last week, signalling that the #pandemic's second wave is far from over in the city. A couple of boroughs are reporting rates as high as 7.6% In this thread, I will try to explain what this means.

2) By comparison, the city of Boston’s positivity rate jumped to 5.7% last week from 4.5% a week earlier, prompting authorities to close all public schools. This raises the question as to why Quebec has not imposed more restrictions on Montreal schools.

3) On Monday, Premier François Legault did require that Grade 9 students in high schools in red zones like Montreal learn online at home one out of two days a week. Legault did so as the number of active #COVID19 cases has risen steadily in schools across the province.

4) On Wednesday, the Education Ministry reported another 50 active cases in the province, raising the total among school staff and students to 2,355. On the other hand, the number of classes shuttered due to #COVID19 exposure declined by 14 to 919. See the chart below.

5) Given that #coronavirus transmission remains elevated across the province, with all of Lanaudière added as a red zone Wednesday, one could ask the question of the Legault government: why not follow Boston’s lead for Montreal, or reduce class sizes or consider other measures?

6) In #COVID19 study published Tuesday, epidemiologist Zoë Hyde warned “we can no longer afford to overlook the role children play in transmission if we hope to contain the virus,” adding “there is clear evidence that children and schools are at risk.” https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.5694/mja2.50823

7) Meanwhile, Montreal posted 254 #COVID19 infections Wednesday, according to the orange line in the chart below. The city’s rolling seven-day average inched up to 118.86 cases from 116.71 the day before. It’s hard to conclude the #pandemic is waning in the metropolis.

8) Indeed, in the borough of Côte-des-Neiges—Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, community transmission of the #coronavirus remains quite high, as the chart below makes clear. Transmission is up in Montreal North, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve and Saint-Léonard, too.

9) In Côte-des-Neiges—Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, the most populous borough with lots of public schools, the four-week positivity rate stands at 7.6%, 2% higher than the city rate. And as I’ve reported for two days now in the @mtlgazette, authorities may be underestimating those rates.

10) Finally, Montreal recorded 19 #COVID19 deaths from Oct. 13 to Monday, up from 14 in the previous two-week period. And on Wednesday, the city added another three to its pandemic death toll, now at 3,521, higher than all of Morocco (3,506). End of thread. Stay safe everyone.