1/ For district poll watchers: updated list of Biden/Trump House polling, by date https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkEg1X1g9wtHzSS8vlcT0_tJZ5?e=Tgteqj

An">https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkE... alphabetical list of district polling, w/ multiple polls from single districts averaged https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkEg1X1g9wtQB8EF8oD2qm7EoM?e=VvqlFz

Average">https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkE... shift grouped by state https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkEg1X1g9wtQIbJebXi3WcJCdr?e=uHmpm8">https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkE...
2/ A few things to highlight (feel free to mute if you don& #39;t want your timeline flooded with district level stats for the next few minutes).

There have been 165 House polls to test a Biden/Trump race since March. 159 of them have found a shift towards Biden, relative to & #39;16.
3/ Of the 159 House polls that shifted to Biden, the shift was double-digits in 97 of them (over 60%).

The average shift towards Biden in all 165 polls is 10.5 pts.

Only 6 of the 165 shifted to Trump relative to 2016, and the average shift in his direction was 3.6 pts.
4/ The Biden/Trump race has been polled in 70 US House districts since March. Trump carried 57 (or, 81%) of them in 2016. He leads Biden in just 23 (or, 33%) of them.

Trump carried these 70 districts by 6.2 pts in 2016. Biden currently leads them by 4, a net shift of 10.2 pts.
5/ Fifteen states have had the Biden/Trump race polled in multiple districts, including 4 of the 6 states Biden& #39;s most likely to flip from Trump (FL, MI, NC, and PA).

Averages of district results within these states paint a rosier picture for Biden than state-level polling.
6/ Take PA, for example. Five of their 18 congressional districts have been polled re: the Biden/Trump race. Trump carried 3 of the 5, by 7.1 pts on average.

Biden currently leads in 4 of the 5, by an average of 5.2 pts.
That& #39;s 12.3 pt shift to Biden relative to 2016.
7/ The shift is even larger in North Carolina. Three of their 13 districts have had the POTUS race polled. Trump carried all 3 in 2016, by 12.3 pts on average.

Biden currently leads in 2 of the 3, by an average of 3.2 pts, a shift in his direction of 15.5 pts.
8/ Of the three Michigan districts to have tested the POTUS race, Trump carried all 3 in 2016 by 11.8 pts. He& #39;s currently tied with Biden in these districts.

Trump carried 4 of the 6 FL districts to test the POTUS race by 5.9 pts in 2016. He now leads in 3, by 0.9 pts.
9/ Last one I& #39;ll do, Texas, tells an interesting story as well. The presidential race has been polled in 9 of their 36 House districts (more than any other state).

Trump carried all but ONE of them in 2016, by 9.3 pts. Biden currently leads in 6, by 2.4 pts, a shift of 11.7 pts
10/ To be fair, there could be something about all of these districts being polled that makes them prone to larger swings to Biden than others (for example, Biden& #39;s improved stance with WWC voters would mean he& #39;d do better in districts with more of those, than say, Latinos).
11/ But there& #39;s a LOT of these polls, and the overwhelming majority point to the same thing.
12/ Note: for purposes of averaging district polls, if multiple pollsters polled a particular district, I averaged their results. If a single pollster surveyed a particular district multiple times, their most recent finding is used.

The end. Remember to unmute. :)
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