Thread by @Brand_Allen, 1/ For district poll watchers: updated list of Biden/Trump House polling, by [...]

1/ For district poll watchers: updated list of Biden/Trump House polling, by date https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkEg1X1g9wtHzSS8vlcT0_tJZ5?e=Tgteqj

An alphabetical list of district polling, w/ multiple polls from single districts averaged https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkEg1X1g9wtQB8EF8oD2qm7EoM?e=VvqlFz

Average shift grouped by state https://1drv.ms/x/s!AsGkEg1X1g9wtQIbJebXi3WcJCdr?e=uHmpm8

2/ A few things to highlight (feel free to mute if you don't want your timeline flooded with district level stats for the next few minutes).

There have been 165 House polls to test a Biden/Trump race since March. 159 of them have found a shift towards Biden, relative to '16.

3/ Of the 159 House polls that shifted to Biden, the shift was double-digits in 97 of them (over 60%).

The average shift towards Biden in all 165 polls is 10.5 pts.

Only 6 of the 165 shifted to Trump relative to 2016, and the average shift in his direction was 3.6 pts.

4/ The Biden/Trump race has been polled in 70 US House districts since March. Trump carried 57 (or, 81%) of them in 2016. He leads Biden in just 23 (or, 33%) of them.

Trump carried these 70 districts by 6.2 pts in 2016. Biden currently leads them by 4, a net shift of 10.2 pts.

5/ Fifteen states have had the Biden/Trump race polled in multiple districts, including 4 of the 6 states Biden's most likely to flip from Trump (FL, MI, NC, and PA).

Averages of district results within these states paint a rosier picture for Biden than state-level polling.

6/ Take PA, for example. Five of their 18 congressional districts have been polled re: the Biden/Trump race. Trump carried 3 of the 5, by 7.1 pts on average.

Biden currently leads in 4 of the 5, by an average of 5.2 pts.
That's 12.3 pt shift to Biden relative to 2016.

7/ The shift is even larger in North Carolina. Three of their 13 districts have had the POTUS race polled. Trump carried all 3 in 2016, by 12.3 pts on average.

Biden currently leads in 2 of the 3, by an average of 3.2 pts, a shift in his direction of 15.5 pts.

8/ Of the three Michigan districts to have tested the POTUS race, Trump carried all 3 in 2016 by 11.8 pts. He's currently tied with Biden in these districts.

Trump carried 4 of the 6 FL districts to test the POTUS race by 5.9 pts in 2016. He now leads in 3, by 0.9 pts.

9/ Last one I'll do, Texas, tells an interesting story as well. The presidential race has been polled in 9 of their 36 House districts (more than any other state).

Trump carried all but ONE of them in 2016, by 9.3 pts. Biden currently leads in 6, by 2.4 pts, a shift of 11.7 pts

10/ To be fair, there could be something about all of these districts being polled that makes them prone to larger swings to Biden than others (for example, Biden's improved stance with WWC voters would mean he'd do better in districts with more of those, than say, Latinos).

11/ But there's a LOT of these polls, and the overwhelming majority point to the same thing.

12/ Note: for purposes of averaging district polls, if multiple pollsters polled a particular district, I averaged their results. If a single pollster surveyed a particular district multiple times, their most recent finding is used.

The end. Remember to unmute. :)

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