Something @EScrimshaw pointed out in his excellent column at @LeanTossup: I had been hyper-focused on Charleston in my analysis on South Carolina. But honestly, hop over to the northwest of the state & you see Greenville as an area of trouble for Graham.

https://leantossup.ca/south-carolina-senate-wither-lindsey-graham/

Graham is in more trouble than I could have anticipated. It appears the suburban swing is beginning to hurt him a lot, and Harrison has an incredible amount of strength with Black voters, winning 91% of their vote. He's only losing whites by 26% in the latest poll.

Kudos to the folks @LeanTossup for literally shaking me awake to my own metric and making me realize Lindsey Graham has many more problems than I thought.

This race is a tossup right now, but if the latest poll is close and the electorate is at least 23% Black, Graham is gone.

Greenville is a metro area on the I-85 corridor between Atlanta and Charlotte. Graham has had some trouble with it in the past as well, and it's a place I'd expect him to continue to struggle with. Charleston is also the type of place swinging away from Trump.

That's trouble.