THREAD ON ELECTION THOUGHTS: Just had a very interesting chat with someone studying polling in detail and the possible paths to victory for Trump and Biden. In 2016, pollsters failed to account for white-non college educated voters and thus a big part of Trump’s appeal.

Most pollsters tell me they’re confident they’ve addressed that issue in their approaches. Most will tell you there is still a 3-point margin of error in state/national polls. Difference between Biden and Hillary is he has wider more consistent leads.

This year, demographics are different too. America is more diverse. Some pollsters seem more quietly concerned about underestimating young Latino voters. In Florida and Arizona they could be key. Lots of ppl watching Maricopa County, AZ, 4th largest county in US.

It must be said, Biden has been under-performing Clinton with Hispanic voters in some polls.

Trump has a path to win. He needs to retain what he did in 2016 (or make-up numbers with lots of smaller ones- v tough). It’s a harder hill to climb with changing demographics- more Black and Latinos voters in key places who trend Dem.

Some polls though say he’s making up ground with African-Americans and Cuban Americans. But that won’t be enough if he hemorrhages White women voters in the suburbs and older voters as polls suggest.

But if the majority of White voters go Trump AND turnout rises significantly BUT doesn’t in other groups, he has a path. If he wins, it may be down to his ground game (more door-knocking), poor Black voter turnout for Dems, the ‘shy’ voter again underestimated/big turnout...

in least populous states, registering more voters than Dems, not losing ground and maybe gaining some with Latinos.

In 2016 Trump was hugely helped by 3rd party candidates and Clinton's likability issue with voters. That was key in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin- decided by just 77,000 voters. Trump doesn’t have the same advantage this year.

Trump only needs to lose small amounts of older voters and White voters to miss out on the White House.

Biden’s path is easier. He can win by picking up voters who went for a third-party, by winning over some but not loads of suburban women, older voters (especially affected by Covid) and White working-class voters who Clinton lost. The polls say he is.

We’re taking just small margins in key battlegrounds. He also seems to be doing much better with college-educated White voters than Trump. If Biden gets just 1% of white swing voters, he would flip four states and capture 307 electoral votes- far more than the 270 he needs...

If he gets Black voters to vote like they did in 2012, he could also flip 3 states and win. All that is to say, Biden doesn’t have to score a political earthquake to win.

Trump needs to do everything he did before and possibly more. He’s not taking things for granted. That’s why you’re seeing him go to Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina to sure up those places and a lot of Black and Latino targeted approaches too...

Holding onto every state as an incumbent is tough business. He could no just enough. But his schedule doesn’t look like someone who thinks he’s going to win more states. Meanwhile Biden and his surrogates are going to historically out of reach places- Texas, Georgia...

That shows confidence (may prove too much of it). Hillary had a distastrous moonshot strategy whist she ignored her crumbling so-called “blue wall” in the Rust Belt. But Biden’s travel schedule is also an indication that his team knows they don’t have to win every battleground

A Florida win could all but unseat Trump. He could still win Pennsylvania and he may well, but Wisconsin and Michigan look tighter for him. What we can’t deduce is any big takeaways from early voting. It likely skews Dem and Reps may turn out in huge numbers on the day.

We may obviously have very tight calls and weeks of protracted challenges. Another 4 years is absolutely in Trump’s reach and he’s a far better campaigner. But the math as they say here, is much, much trickier for him given the changing country and razor think margins of 2016...

You can see shifts in cities like Charlotte, North Carolina and even Houston, Austin and Dallas, Texas. It’s hard to see where I’m sitting ruby-red Texas and Georgia flipping. But the Rust-Belt does look open to both, as does Florida and maybe North Carolina.

Some counties (of about 40) I’ll be watching- Maricopa, AZ (Latino vote), Macomb, MI (socially conservative), Sumpter, Fla (a grey revolt?), Pinellas, FLA (picked president since 1980- now a melting pot), Bucks County, PA (contested) and Westmoreland, PA (Trump build?)

Of-course we might not get a decisive victory for either candidate. Each team has been legalling up- already 100s of cases going through courts. Pennsylvania, so key, could take days. There could easily be another Gore/Bush scenario writ-large.

A 6-3 advantage in the Supreme Court may well help Republicans. On the road over the past four years, Trump’s enduring appeal among his supporters is v striking. He’s survived/thrived with them despite controversies. His team has gone for v localized issues like fracking in 2020.

We may look back at it as a winning strategy. But he needs to build reach this year and can lose so little. If he loses, the GOP will have to rebrand. If Biden loses, his party, with all the advantages it had, will face phase 2 of a deeply bruising existential crisis.

Interesting data coming out of North Carolina- suggests white college-educated voters could really hurt Trump there. Lots of change around Raleigh and Charlotte- people moving to suburbs, no longer reliably Republican and more Hispanic voters too.