Important: tomorrow morning we will get big economic news in the form of the regular quarterly GDP report.

Trump will claim it means we have an amazing economy, a great economy, the strongest economic recovery ever, etc.

He will be wrong.
1/

The headlines are likely to point to a growth figure for the third quarter (Q3) around 30% annualized (more on this in a minute), give or take a few points.

This will be the highest figure in history, but for reasons that are not all good. 2/ https://twitter.com/JECDems/status/1321476157666136066

Trump will focus on the sharp increase *without crucial context* in an attempt to mislead the country about his economic record.

How do we know this? Because his campaign is already running ads about it on Facebook. Per @sahilkapur @SRuhle: 3/ https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-wants-credit-fastest-gdp-growth-history-here-s-reality-n1244967

Most especially, you should be wary of the statistics. The US economy shrank at an annualized rate of 31.4% in the second quarter, but a gain of 32% DOES NOT mean we erased the loss – far from it.

A simple bit of math from @JayCShambaugh explains why: 4/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/10/26/dont-let-flashy-3rd-quarter-gdp-growth-fool-you-the-economy-is-still-in-a-big-hole/

The use of annualized figures confuses things a great deal, because many will see a figure like "30% growth" and think it means the economy expanded by one third in the quarter. It does NOT mean that.

A good explanation here from @bencasselman 5/ https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1321164745513336832

Economic growth is something all of us want to see – but we must be honest about what it means, and what problems remain.

Q3 has already ended. If you didn't see the benefits of growth, you aren't alone: the distribution has been wildly uneven. 6/ https://twitter.com/econjared/status/1321120393462226944

As Republicans continue to publicly oppose larger fiscal stimulus and economic aid for American families, the effects are starting to hit the economy -- just as we warned they would. We won't know for sure tomorrow, but the slowdown may be *very* sharp. 7/ https://www.vox.com/21531764/economy-recovery-gdp-growth

The US economy will still be in a deep hole tomorrow, with a long way to go to get back to we were before the pandemic.

Concerningly, economists like @DeanBaker13 increasingly warn of a new *decline* if Republicans continue to block a stimulus package. 8/ https://www.cepr.net/preview-what-to-look-for-in-the-third-quarter-gdp-report/

Trump's lies cannot change the reality that vast numbers of American families are suffering. Much of that suffering could have been avoided if Senate Republicans and the White House had agreed to pass an aid package (the House passed one in May). 9/ https://beyer.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=4940

Don't let Trump erase the deep tragedy too many Americans are experiencing.

The damage is a result of a pandemic he is STILL failing to handle, and the spread is getting worse.

Vulnerable people are being hit hardest, and they badly need more help. 10/10 https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1320815668296466432