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1/x As we previewed last week, our @CrisisGroup new report on potential election-related violence here in the U.S. is out today:
https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/004-us-presidential-election-managing-risks-violence
I've pulled out some of the key points to highlight them, but this really is worth you reading it all the way through!
https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/004-us-presidential-election-managing-risks-violence
I've pulled out some of the key points to highlight them, but this really is worth you reading it all the way through!
2/x
1st - This is not normal:
"Even so, it is rare that U.S. elections threaten to go off the rails in a way that calls into question the capacity and resilience of the country’s democratic institutions, or that suggests the use/threat of force might influence the outcome."
1st - This is not normal:
"Even so, it is rare that U.S. elections threaten to go off the rails in a way that calls into question the capacity and resilience of the country’s democratic institutions, or that suggests the use/threat of force might influence the outcome."
3/x
How both sides talk about each other matters:
"These differences between the two major U.S. political parties are magnified in rhetoric that can only reinforce a deep sense of division....
How both sides talk about each other matters:
"These differences between the two major U.S. political parties are magnified in rhetoric that can only reinforce a deep sense of division....
4/x
"...When they become pitched, Dem commentators tend to portray Republicans as ethno-nationalists who refuse to squarely confront a deeply flawed past and the systemic inequities that deny opportunity to too many Black and other Americans..."
"...When they become pitched, Dem commentators tend to portray Republicans as ethno-nationalists who refuse to squarely confront a deeply flawed past and the systemic inequities that deny opportunity to too many Black and other Americans..."
5/x
"...Their R counterparts tend to characterise Democrats as too dismissive of the US’ Christian/ European cultural heritage & too drawn to globalist policies that, in their view, have begun to change the nation’s character and cost US workers prosperity & way of life."
"...Their R counterparts tend to characterise Democrats as too dismissive of the US’ Christian/ European cultural heritage & too drawn to globalist policies that, in their view, have begun to change the nation’s character and cost US workers prosperity & way of life."
6/x
Armed groups are playing an alarming role:
"The sense of grievance & alienation that has driven the U.S. toward increasing levels of pol. polarisation has created an env. in which non-state groups...some of whom adopt paramilitary trappings pose an increasing security risk."
Armed groups are playing an alarming role:
"The sense of grievance & alienation that has driven the U.S. toward increasing levels of pol. polarisation has created an env. in which non-state groups...some of whom adopt paramilitary trappings pose an increasing security risk."
7/x
DHS is indicating that the threat of violence from these groups is real:
"An October 2020 report issued by DHS concludes that 'racially & ethnically motivated violent extremists – specifically, white supremacists – remain the most persistent/lethal threat in the homeland.'"
DHS is indicating that the threat of violence from these groups is real:
"An October 2020 report issued by DHS concludes that 'racially & ethnically motivated violent extremists – specifically, white supremacists – remain the most persistent/lethal threat in the homeland.'"
8/x
As DHS itself says, 2019 was the most lethal year for domestic extremist group activity since the 1995 OKC bombing.
It attributes half of the 16 lethal attacks in the US to white supremacists (w/the other half to others), and for 39 of the 48 deaths.
As DHS itself says, 2019 was the most lethal year for domestic extremist group activity since the 1995 OKC bombing.
It attributes half of the 16 lethal attacks in the US to white supremacists (w/the other half to others), and for 39 of the 48 deaths.
8/x
Those we spoke with also indicated that non-right extremists are also violent at times, they aren't in the same conversation in terms of threat level.
Those we spoke with also indicated that non-right extremists are also violent at times, they aren't in the same conversation in terms of threat level.
9/x
We identified 3 scenarios posing the greatest risk of escalating unrest.
(1) armed poll monitoring that leads to a suppression/disruption of the vote
(2) aggressive delegitimization/disqualification of mail-in ballots
(3) the manipulation of deadlines to certify results
We identified 3 scenarios posing the greatest risk of escalating unrest.
(1) armed poll monitoring that leads to a suppression/disruption of the vote
(2) aggressive delegitimization/disqualification of mail-in ballots
(3) the manipulation of deadlines to certify results
10/x
The biggest onus in ensuring a successful and accepted process will fall on state and local officials:
"First&foremost, these officials should...become as familiar as possible with the tools/resources at their disposal to fend off voter intimidation if the need arises..."
The biggest onus in ensuring a successful and accepted process will fall on state and local officials:
"First&foremost, these officials should...become as familiar as possible with the tools/resources at their disposal to fend off voter intimidation if the need arises..."
11/x
"...as well as the mechanisms they can use to extend polling hours and make other accommodations should voting be slowed/disrupted. Often these matters are a function of state law, & some towns are assembling teams of lawyers to help w/contingencies that may come up.
"...as well as the mechanisms they can use to extend polling hours and make other accommodations should voting be slowed/disrupted. Often these matters are a function of state law, & some towns are assembling teams of lawyers to help w/contingencies that may come up.
12/x
"...Civil society organisations can help, too, by supporting local officials who need assistance in protecting their constituents’ right to vote free of intimidation, or advising citizens when local officials are not doing their jobs."
"...Civil society organisations can help, too, by supporting local officials who need assistance in protecting their constituents’ right to vote free of intimidation, or advising citizens when local officials are not doing their jobs."
13/x
Of course, info flow will really matter.
"Traditional & social media should take extra precautions not to pronounce premature winners, which can create the impression that the result has been fixed or foster resentment in the event the call has to be reversed..."
Of course, info flow will really matter.
"Traditional & social media should take extra precautions not to pronounce premature winners, which can create the impression that the result has been fixed or foster resentment in the event the call has to be reversed..."
14/x
"...It will be especially critical to exercise caution in the coverage of battleground states with razor-thin margins."
"...It will be especially critical to exercise caution in the coverage of battleground states with razor-thin margins."
15/x
" For their part, social media platforms should avoid providing a forum for candidates to declare themselves winners before the electoral process has played itself out, or for the sharing of pernicious disinformation."
" For their part, social media platforms should avoid providing a forum for candidates to declare themselves winners before the electoral process has played itself out, or for the sharing of pernicious disinformation."
16/x
" @twitter & FB have taken impt steps, among other things susp. accts engaging in 'platform manipulation (like creating false identities as Trump supporters - Twitter) and restricting political ads (FB), but the challenge will require constant vigilance and management."
" @twitter & FB have taken impt steps, among other things susp. accts engaging in 'platform manipulation (like creating false identities as Trump supporters - Twitter) and restricting political ads (FB), but the challenge will require constant vigilance and management."
17/x
"Should things take a turn...Washington’s traditional allies may also be in the best position to remind U.S. leaders in the executive branch and Congress how much is @ stake in terms of US global standing & ability to claim to serve as a model of governance for others."
"Should things take a turn...Washington’s traditional allies may also be in the best position to remind U.S. leaders in the executive branch and Congress how much is @ stake in terms of US global standing & ability to claim to serve as a model of governance for others."
18/x
We also think that political leaders here can contribute to setting the right tone for the moment we're in:
"D's and R's can help set the right tone by following the lead of Utah’s Lieut. Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, and his opponent, Chris Peterson, a Democrat.."
We also think that political leaders here can contribute to setting the right tone for the moment we're in:
"D's and R's can help set the right tone by following the lead of Utah’s Lieut. Governor Spencer Cox, a Republican, and his opponent, Chris Peterson, a Democrat.."
19/x
"...who recently filmed a joint public service announcement in which they committed to respect and uphold democratic norms and a peaceful transition of power."
"...who recently filmed a joint public service announcement in which they committed to respect and uphold democratic norms and a peaceful transition of power."
20/x
Our closing argument:
"Finally, whether or not the U.S. dodges a bullet this Election Day, it will need over the longer term to confront and address the factors big and small that brought it to this point..."
Our closing argument:
"Finally, whether or not the U.S. dodges a bullet this Election Day, it will need over the longer term to confront and address the factors big and small that brought it to this point..."
21/x
"...Some of these may be technical matters as simple as changing the state-level rules that govern the counting of mail-in ballots – so that the process can begin earlier and be completed in a timelier way..."
"...Some of these may be technical matters as simple as changing the state-level rules that govern the counting of mail-in ballots – so that the process can begin earlier and be completed in a timelier way..."
22/x
"Others will likely involve dedicating more resources to addressing the traditionally under-examined threat posed by violent white supremacy organisations. But the bigger issues go far deeper and relate to the polarisation that has torn at the social and political fabric.."
"Others will likely involve dedicating more resources to addressing the traditionally under-examined threat posed by violent white supremacy organisations. But the bigger issues go far deeper and relate to the polarisation that has torn at the social and political fabric.."
23/x
"...of a fast-changing country. Whether U.S. pol leaders and dem institutions are up to the enormous challenge of bringing the poles closer together remains to be seen. Navigating the 2020 presl election with a minimum of unrest would be a step in the right direction."
"...of a fast-changing country. Whether U.S. pol leaders and dem institutions are up to the enormous challenge of bringing the poles closer together remains to be seen. Navigating the 2020 presl election with a minimum of unrest would be a step in the right direction."
24/END
I'll end w/this: Violence around the election is by no means a given. The ingredients are there, yes, but as we say there are still reasons to believe the guardrails will work despite the test they are getting at the moment.
Go read the full report!
I'll end w/this: Violence around the election is by no means a given. The ingredients are there, yes, but as we say there are still reasons to believe the guardrails will work despite the test they are getting at the moment.
Go read the full report!
