Alright, it's time for the Week 8 edition of #DrewsClues! We have passed the halfway point of the regular season and now it is time to focus on winning a title & not just surviving. So let's first talk about some things I do towards that goal, and then hit some specific guys

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Fair warning - some of these things might seem "small", or a bit obsessive (they are), but I'm assuming you're here, on fantasy twitter, to be a killer. Our edge in this game is small, so we should do anything we can to gain even a small bump to that edge.

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Let's talk for a second about defenses. Most of us still play in leagues with defenses. You should be plotting your strategy with those for *the rest of the season* right NOW. I know it seems like defenses are boring or don't matter much when debating waiver wire darlings...

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...and that's true to a degree. But when you're sweating your Week 15 semifinal and your defense gets you negative points, or your opponent has a strong matchup that nets a big advantage you'll wish you hadn't ignored it.

Here's a simple way to do it...

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I do this every year. Take the Defense you own, then write down any viable waiver wire defenses below. Create a grid that has every matchup (home/away matters! Less this year, but more in years w crowds). Circle matchups you like. X ones you don’t.

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This is just an example, don't kill me for the circles and Xs please lol I did this quickly for illustration. But start planning WHEN to pick up WHICH defenses. Update this chart EVERY week and it gets easier to keep track of as you go.

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Kickers - You'd be shocked at how many of the top kickers sit on the wire in casual leagues. Just this week I looked in one league & 3 of the top 5 kickers were on the wire. Why? Even if it's 1 or 2 points a game so what? Go check your wire. Maximize your lineup.

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Trades - I get a TON of trade questions. Here's my rule of thumb that's super important: This early in the year UNLESS you can trade without hurting your depth you should err on the side of NOT trading. It's too early!

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Plenty of byes coming, and injuries too. Unless you have a big hole in your lineup, upgrading your starting lineup is Negative EV long term because there are still 8 weeks to go to win a title. You'll reap rewards as players scramble during bye weeks especially.

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Full disclosure - I *love* trading. But I only trade when I think I have bye week/injury depth to give away and STILL have the same depth. That is massively important. I was "deep" in a league and this week alone I lost Crowder/Drake/Mixon/Carson. In ONE league. Be careful.

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One last thing Re: Trades. Strength of Schedule AND whether they've had a bye are two important factors! Don't ignore those!

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One more thing about winning titles: Start looking at your playoff plans NOW if you are doing well. Defenses, bad weather, matchups. Don't DO anything yet! It's too early & things change. But be aware. Have the Ravens against your big guys in Week 14? Have a plan B in mind!

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Ok, that's a peek into my obsessive mind. I've been looking at the playoff schedules for weeks bc, well...I want to be a killer. If I get to Week 14 & lose in the 1st round because I was too lazy to make a chart to secure a D and mine got -2? That's something I can't handle

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With that in mind let's hit some specific situations you can take advantage of down the stretch and look at a few guys I get questions on all the time...

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Two teams that everyone has been down on so far that have some strong value down the stretch...

#Browns - Other than a Wk14 gm v. Bal this offense should be one you are mining for value. Their schedule is GREAT & they get Chubb back from injury Week 10ish.

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#FlyEaglesFly - Yeah they are a train wreck. But Jason Peters is practicing, Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert are returning before long, and Miles Sanders could even play this week. Their schedule also sets up fantastically for the stretch.

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One thing to keep in mind when trading for/away players, and also when evaluating your current situation, is that we are *subconsciously* biased by touchdowns. Scrub that away consciously as you look to the final 8 weeks.

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Two players I get asked about a lot are #JoshJacobs and #ToddGurley. They're both strongly influenced by touchdown totals. (obviously everyone is, but follow me here a minute)

We always knew what Gurley is doing was in the range of possibilities...

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...but don't forget what he is. He is on pace for 16 TDs, but his passing game work has him on pace for less than 30 receptions. He'll remain heavily TD dependent and he's topped 63 yards rushing just twice. Yes it's a good situation. But 16 TDs? Probably not.

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According to Football Outsiders Gurley is still the 4th *worst* of qualifying RBs at both DVOA and DYAR. He's still declining. His situation is nice, but he is what he is.

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#Jacobs on the other hand, is the opposite. I'm buying Jacobs still. He is PPR RB14 (Gurley is RB8) and he's already had his bye. He's on pace for almost 50 catches & has surpassed 77 rushing yards in 4 of 6 games. He's the unquestioned RZ/GL guy. He'll be fine.

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#DavidJohnson currently sits as RB16. However, he's handled 19 of 23 #Texans RZ touches, and has the 3rd most attempts inside the 5 yard line but has only converted 2 of 9. He's also narrowly missed TD catches in consecutive weeks. He's got a strong second half rushing sked

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The #Bills are a hot topic. Consider my tweet earlier this week about Allen regressing to being Allen. But the more scary thing? Their Week 13-16 schedule is SFO, Pit, Den, NWE. Not exactly what you want to see. Allen should be ok, Diggs may struggle.

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#DarrellHenderson currently outpaces teammate #MalcolmBrown 25 to 12 in RZ carries, and has 7 carries inside the 5, good for 6th in the league. He'll be frustrating at times, but he's cemented himself as the good side of a 60/40 committee.

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#RonaldJones and #LeonardFournette are both talented backs capable of fantasy stardom. But I've been saying this since Tampa signed Fournette - putting them together is a fantasy anathema. In deeper leagues they're fine. In shallow leagues they're strictly depth.

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In Weeks 2,3,4 with no #DavanteAdams, #RobertTonyan averaged 20 PPR ppg. Without Adams he has averaged 3.6, including 5.3 per game the last two games. Adams is too much of a hog, as are the RBs, for Tonyan to be a consistent producer. He's droppable.

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#RobertWoods may be disappointing to this point in the season, but peep the Week 15/16 matchups against the Jets and Seahawks. Woods will also feast on the Seahawks post bye in his Week 10 game.

This is also a #JaredGoff tweet.

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I whiffed badly on #JustinJefferson. The major thing I missed? The combination of Stefanski leaving and the defense falling in the toilet has left the whole offense playing from behind all year. He and #AdamThielen are likely to continue their torrid pace.

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The #Steelers offense has a great schedule the rest of the way as well, but unless you have #DiontaeJohnson I think the pass catchers are going to drive you nuts.

You have to hold #ChaseClaypool but absent a Johnson injury you can't start/count on him.

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I'm also not necessarily buying #JuJuSmithSchuster either. His game was nice, but it illustrates what he is now - a possession receiver who won't have many explosive plays with Johnson on the field.

Love the whole offense. Only interested in Ben, Conner, and Diontae rn

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And finally, I have to talk about #RyanTannehill again. If you haven't bought in yet - what are you waiting for? The guy has 2+ TDs in every game but one so far and has already had his bye.

If that isn't enough already, can I interest you in a schedule?

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Weeks 13-16...
Cleveland
Jacksonville
Detroit
Green Bay

The perfect combo of teams that can score on Tennessee's bad defense, while also having a defense beatable through the air. Get you some #Titans players. Any of them. Now.

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Ok I've ignored my son for long enough. It's time to eat dinner and carve pumpkins!

Thanks for following - DMs always open, and questions welcome. Please RT if you enjoyed!

Keep grinding - the hardest workers always have the edge. Make that be YOU!

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