If you haven't read @Alan_Morrison67 piece posted last night, then I highly recommend you do. Alan is the epitome of what good faith analysis is all about. He's done a tremendous job making a case in his piece why Lennon deserves more time. I share only a fraction of my analysis

publicly. As Alan has done, I am going to be a bit more detailed and thorough in this thread. I created two charts which are similar in spirit with Alan's analysis. The first is SPFL League 6 game non-penalty xG differential http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/lennons-celtic-an-appraisal-by-numbers/

since start of Deila's last season in 2015-2016. It is using Wyscout's data and xG model, but it largely reflects the same trends as Alan's data and model, which includes all Celtic games. This data does include the most recent 3 games, while Alan's

piece does not. We can see that the current stretch is now the worst since a 6 game stretch in winter of 2018, which started with a 1-0 loss at Steve Clarke's Kilmarnock. It is reasonable to consider this a likely area to trough in performance. And for things to "kick on."

This is where I think cross domain analytical "expertise" can add a variant perspective. I am reasonably well versed on business cycle analysis. Football performance levels unfold in "cycles" & are generally mean reverting. In English, this means that good stretches are usually

followed by less good and bad stretches by less bad, with things bouncing around an average. In fact, football performance is likely more mean reverting than business cycles. This is a vital and fundamental distinction with Alan's piece and analysis, IMO. 2019-2020 season was the

highest performance season for as far back as advanced stats are generally available for SPFL- basically 2014-2015. If we look at classic metrics like shots and goals, it was the best dating back to MON era. If performance is mean reverting, and the most recent season was stellar

then an important risk to consider is whether a cycle change has begun. In business cycle analysis this can be done using various leading indicators, with that concept pioneered by Geoffrey Moore. In this case, I am looking at the 6 game trends as higher frequency and comparing

longer term trends. I circled the 2018 trough on the 1st chart in green. This next chart is a 19 SPFL league game rolling avg, which is 50% of a season. We can see the context of that poor 2018 stretch- it was part of a longer term bottoming out of the "cycle."

That context is very different than what has transpired this season. I added a 10 period moving average to the chart for further context. We can see that it would be quite normal within the context of the past 5+ seasons, the most successful in decades, for performance to trend

in the wrong direction over much of the rest of this season.

I think Alan's conclusion that team performance improved during Lennon's first season is objectively true. I've just covered why that introduces risks of mean reversion rather than assume continued linear "growth."

Another issue I have is Alan's analysis is it is within a vacuum of Celtic. Celtic's performance levels are not the only important analytical variable. Rangers performance levels relative to Celtic are, and will be, hugely important. Where as Celtic show signs of potential

cycle peak, Rangers appear to still be ascending and with enough room for a peak to be too late to impact 10iar in our favor.

The last analytical issue I have is that of attribution of performance. While Tierney's sale technically occurred early in Lennon's

tenure, he had been injured and much less effective most of the prior season. Excluding the Tierney sale, Lennon has enjoyed over 30 million in net transfer acquisitions. That excludes big 5 league-level loans like Forster, Moi, Laxalt and Duffy. How much of the performance

was attributable to the squad quality vs managerial skill? Last summer's window added at least 4 upgrades to the preceding starting 11 with high quality for the core shape. I gave Lennon and Hammond huge credit. This summer's window saw 2 potential downgrades (I caught hell at

the time for suggesting) at CB and GK, with LWB an upgrade and CF yet to be determined. My overall assessment of Lennon's record has been a huge reliance on Forster's brilliance, and recruitment-driven talent advantages over a weak domestic league. This season's Rangers present

Lennon with the highest quality challenge he's faced as manager, and his erratic and poor decision making, which are also clear in his track record, make the apparent plan to stick with him, until it is probably too late, unwise. We should see a bounce in short term performance

levels even if the overall cycle has turned- that's how poor we've been recently. Players returning should certainly help. I hope I am wrong and Alan is correct. The club have made a huge financial bet that my analysis is and will be wrong. Nothing would make me happier. End.