Read on Twitter
Many journalists and political leaders in France explain that the pandemic is growing faster than expected.
Here are the daily new cases in France since May 11th (end of the lockdown), log scale. How could it be more predictable? Where is the surprise?
Here are the daily new cases in France since May 11th (end of the lockdown), log scale. How could it be more predictable? Where is the surprise?
There are even theories about what changed these last 3-4 weeks, why it accelerated. Is it the weather? The start of the school year?
When we look at the data, it seems that actually, nothing changed. It is only the expected exponential growth, since the beginning.
When we look at the data, it seems that actually, nothing changed. It is only the expected exponential growth, since the beginning.
Still, Macron will announce today new measures, probably a lockdown. Only 2 weeks ago, he announced a curfew, and we can't already see its effects. 2 weeks ago, what was the government forecast on what the situation would be today? Are they surprised?
There is a critical situation in hospitals today, and it is necessary to act. But it could have been avoided by acting a few weeks earlier.
There is a 2-3 weeks delay for any decision, and an exponential growth.
If we want to keep a metric below x, we need to act when the metric is 5 or 10 times smaller than x, not when it is reaching x.
If we want to keep a metric below x, we need to act when the metric is 5 or 10 times smaller than x, not when it is reaching x.
When I see how the new measures are decided, and when I read an anonymous source close to Macron who declares: "it is not an exponential growth anymore; it is a firework!", I sometime think that they might not understand at all what is happening.
