A lot being said about the last time a Dem running for president won GA. Yes, that was 1992. But, Barnes was governor until 2003, and Baker and Thurmond — both Black— were elected statewide until 2011. All were Democrats.
GA electorate is more highly diverse than it was even 10 years ago— due in part to proportionality of non-whites coming of voting age, browning of suburbs due to gentrification and economic mobility, and Abrams’ Fair Fight that pushed registrations.
Democrats busted the two biggest GOP strongholds in 2016– Cobb and Gwinnett. That paved the way for McBath. But it also creates a political map that is winnable for Warnock now.
His best shot, though, is to win outright and avoid a runoff. In a runoff, he loses the advantage of Biden’s coattails and republicans have a much better track record of showing up the second time.
You don’t want to leave an opportunity for Loeffler or Collins to consolidate the base.
Most of this applies to Ossoff too, of course. Except there won’t be a runoff. The winner will go home with the cake Tuesday.
I will say this about Ossoff, he’s benefiting heavily from Black democratic turnout— that includes a shitload of help from Biden/Harris, Warnock and McBath.