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If Joe Biden wins on November 3, the Trump-to-Biden presidential transition will begin one week from today. Even in normal times, the transition period is the most perilous moment in American politics. This year, we should be especially worried. Here's why... [thread] 1/
Trump's refusal to leave office is the nightmare scenario. But even if he were to lose & accept the results, he could still wreak significant damage between election & inauguration days.
I made this case @TheAtlantic @TheAtlIdeas in August: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/other-way-trump-could-destroy-next-presidency/615130/. 2/
I made this case @TheAtlantic @TheAtlIdeas in August: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/other-way-trump-could-destroy-next-presidency/615130/. 2/
Presidential transitions are always precarious moments: The Executive Branch is effectively decapitated as one team leaves and a new one comes in.
The @publicservice Transition Lab podcast is a fascinating exploration of this remarkable ritual: https://presidentialtransition.org/transition-lab/ 3/
The @publicservice Transition Lab podcast is a fascinating exploration of this remarkable ritual: https://presidentialtransition.org/transition-lab/ 3/
If Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20, he will immediately assume responsibility for everything from nuclear launch codes to pandemic response, economic policy, and counterterrorism. The transition is his time to get ready for this herculean task. 4/
A smooth transition is of paramount national importance, particularly at a time of ongoing upheaval at home and abroad.
Michael Lewis explored the dangers of Trump's haphazard transition in The Fifth Risk: https://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Risk-Michael-Lewis/dp/1324002646 5/
Michael Lewis explored the dangers of Trump's haphazard transition in The Fifth Risk: https://www.amazon.com/Fifth-Risk-Michael-Lewis/dp/1324002646 5/
Yet there is ample reason to worry that the outgoing Trump team will disregard the laws and the norms that are supposed to govern the transition period.
As @jgeltzer has argued, a quiet departure would be decidedly out of character for Trump: https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/30/opinions/how-to-prepare-for-ex-president-trump-opinion-geltzer/index.html
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As @jgeltzer has argued, a quiet departure would be decidedly out of character for Trump: https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/30/opinions/how-to-prepare-for-ex-president-trump-opinion-geltzer/index.html
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Obstruction or even sabotage could take many forms... 7/
Team Trump could undertake dramatic policy steps that lock in its policy priorities, whether a precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan or assertive steps toward Iran or China, without consulting with Biden.
@joshrogin foreshadowed this risk in August: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/06/trumps-foreign-policy-team-is-hedging-against-biden-win/ 8/
@joshrogin foreshadowed this risk in August: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/08/06/trumps-foreign-policy-team-is-hedging-against-biden-win/ 8/
They could also withhold critical intelligence from the incoming administration on matters of national security — whether imminent threats to the US or ongoing covert operations.
Poor intelligence sharing is dangerous, as I argued @TheAtlantic in 2016 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/12/intelligence-briefings-trump/509621/
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Poor intelligence sharing is dangerous, as I argued @TheAtlantic in 2016 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/12/intelligence-briefings-trump/509621/
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And/or an outgoing Trump team could deny access to the agency landing teams and senior officials presidents-elect typically announce right after the election.
For context Obama announced national security team leads 8 days after the election in 2008: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/press-release-obama-biden-transition-team-announces-agency-review-team-leads-for-depts 10/
For context Obama announced national security team leads 8 days after the election in 2008: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/press-release-obama-biden-transition-team-announces-agency-review-team-leads-for-depts 10/
Any one of these steps would present a dangerous hindrance to a Biden Administration’s ability to govern from its first day in office; all three would jeopardize American national security at a time of acute crisis both at home and abroad with potentially devastating results. 11/
All eyes are rightly on the election for now. But a decisive Biden victory will not be the end of the road. We must guard against the danger that American national security, prosperity & health could get lost in transition. 12/12
Linking my @TheAtlantic article one more time for anyone who wants to read more about the risks of a scuttled Trump-Biden transition: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/08/other-way-trump-could-destroy-next-presidency/615130/
