1) PENNSYLVANIA UPDATE

The final registration tally for PA shows Republicans closed the Dem-Rep voter registration gap by 229,381 since 2016. This includes a 13,960 advantage for Reps over Dems in the last week before 10/26. Both long and short-term party momentum for the GOP.

2) So Republicans are better positioned in 2020 than in 2016 when Trump won by 44,292. This fact could be more important than any poll.

Next, pollsters that were accurate with PA and/or the Electoral College in 2016 show positive movement for Trump in PA, either for a lead. . .

3) or slicing Biden’s lead:

Trafalgar now has Trump +0.8. Earlier he had Biden +2.3.

Baris (Big Data Poll) now has Biden +0.7. Earlier it was Biden +2.4. Baris says, “Pennsylvania is moving away from Joe Biden.”

Matt Towery (Insider Adv/AG) now has Trump +2.9 in PA.

4) (SP&R had Biden +2 in Sept. Perhaps a new PA poll soon?)

We're not fans of polling averages, but the RCP average in PA has seen Biden's lead drop to +3.8.

In sum, some positive movements for Trump in Pennsylvania.