FIGHT TO THE FINISH #14

The #DistrictOfTheDay: Texas’s 22nd
The Democrat: Sri Preston Kulkarni
The Republican: Troy Nehls

~~~CURRENT RATINGS~~~
Cook Political: Tossup
Crystal Ball: Tossup
538 Deluxe: Lean R

My prediction: Democratic GAIN

ABOUT THE DISTRICT: Texas’s suburbs are ground zero for the suburban shift. Based in Houston’s southern suburbs, this district is mostly Ford Bend County, including Sugar Land, with a small chunk of Harris and Brazoria counties. TX-22 is majority-minority, about 25% Hispanic.

THE HISTORY: In 2008, Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson was defeated. He lost to Pete Olsen (R–Sugar Land), who currently represents the district. Olsen held on with total ease until 2018, when he faced his first real test. A sign of its shift it went from Romney+25 to just Trump+8.

THE DEMOCRAT is Sri Preston Kulkarni, who ran for the same seat in 2018. Kulkarni was in the Foreign Service before running for office and was Kirsten Gillibrand’s foreign policy advisor. He speaks a whopping six languages. Interestingly, he is also a descendant of Sam Houston.

THE REPUBLICAN is Troy Nehls, who has been the Sheriff of Ford Bent County since 2013. Nehls was in the Army Reserve for several years, touring Bosnia, Iraq, and Afghanistan. His record as sheriff has come under some scrutiny, but he defends himself by saying crime has lowered.

IN 2018 Pete Olsen faced his toughest challenge yet from Kulkarni. Though he held on by about 5%, Beto O’Rourke came within a hair of carrying TX-22, indicating more room to fall for Republicans. Despite his narrow win, Olsen did carry all three counties in TX-22.

MY PREDICTION: I’ve thought for a long time that TX-22 will flip, and my belief in that is only reaffirmed seeing the incredibly high turnout in the state already. This district’s leftward shift isn’t complete yet, thanks to a high minority % and Trump's presence atop the ticket.