A thread by Orion who lays out the reality of what CR launching Darrington Press may actually mean in the bigger world of #TTRPG. And it's just the tip of the iceberg. Why? Because I think people are really underestimating what CR has done and is doing. https://twitter.com/OrionDBlack/status/1321134604451934208

Even in this article by BoLS, about how the CR campaign setting book, Explorers Guide to Wildemount, frames it as CR "riding the 5e wave". I'd argue that 5e is riding their wave at this point. Their campaign setting book hit sales levels not seen since... https://www.belloflostsouls.net/2020/01/and-the-fastest-selling-dd-book-is.html

...2014/15, when the core books were released.

Then there's their massively successful Kickstarter for an animated series. $11.4 million raised. That's over 1/5 the total amount of money made by the entire TTRPG industry annually.

Critical Role is something that D&D has...

...never had to deal with before. A group of talented individuals with professional contacts and skills who have a large and cohesive fanbase that is constantly expanding. TSR never saw it, and Wizards never predicted or anticipated it. And now 5e is caught in their wave.

Naturally, the problem is as Orion pointed out. D&D has some deep identity and direction issues, some reaching all the way back into TSR days. And as hype as they can make things, they're out of step and sync in so many areas that it's a legitimate hazard as they move forwards.

And that's where Darrington Press is such a huge danger. CR has been driving interest in 5e like nothing else. CR has ~444k followers on Twitter and Darrington is approaching 19k less than 24hrs after going live. Wizards D&D has ~398k and the DM Guild has ~16k.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see those numbers aren't in Wizards' favour. Critical Role has been building up for years, developing a huge fanbase, embracing modern fantasy concepts, and creating new content in ways that Wizards has not. And now they have a choice.

They can either be a small cog on the indie scene for TTRPG and tabletop games while driving business to Wizards, or they can be a big wheel in the TTRPG industry and drive sales to themselves. And yes, at this point, it would be that easy. How you ask? Read on.

Matt Mercer and his team are no fools. They're also in the position of being and/or having:
1.) Talented
2.) Connected
3.) Familiar with the Business
4.) Ready customer base
5.) A proven record of success
This is a world beating set up to be in. Especially because of one other...

...factor. They have no "grognard" audience they feel that they have to reach out to. And this is big. Because D&D is, as Orion pointed out, constantly trying to balance the pressures of new fans vs the demands of their grognards, and it's not working out in their favour.

CR, and Darrington Press by extension, don't have that. The worst they might have is a small backlash by 5e diehards if they were to introduce their own game system. Which, TBH, they'd be fools not to. Because given their popularity and ability to generate interest, there is...

...no downside to them. But D&D? Wizards? This is how giants are brought low. Wizards took a beating when Paizo walked with a significant chunk of their customers when 4e was flopping. And that was a *disorganized* body of consumers and a company that didn't know how to...

... exploit a breakthrough. CR, and by extension, Darrington Press, have a large, cohesive fanbase. They know the showmanship and media side better than anyone in the game right now, and have the industry's top end talent on side. When, not if, but when they choose to make...

...their move, it's going to be a radical realignment of power and influence in the hobby.

My prediction? If they make their moce, it's likely to be in 2023 or 2025. 2024 will be "A Year of D&D" because it's going to be the 50th anniversary and frankly, unless some very dramatic things happen, it's going to be a rough year for everything not D&D. I think we'll see...

...indicators of their plan by late 2021 or mid 2022. CR is awesome, but also still human and have a lot on their plates right now.