In Arizona, roughly half of the expected vote is already in the door. 34% of the state has voted.

- Democrats have a 8% partisan advantage over Republicans in total ballots cast (89k votes)
- Among those returning so far, only 5% didn't vote in 2016 or 2018

In Arizona, roughly 150k voters who voted in 16 and 18 haven't voted yet in 2020, and their partisan lean is R +31%

Rs are also keeping at parity in turning out modeled unexpected voters - 15% of GOP votes are from this group, compared to 14% of DEM coming from this group.

In Arizona, Republicans also have a raw 100k more ballots outstanding than Democrats (540k to 440k)

Rs lead Maricopa County in returns by 1.5%, and trail in Pima by 17.3%.