Talking with some of my contacts.

Trump campaign loves the numbers they're seeing in Florida. They think they have it in the bag, hence pulling adds out.

They also think they have Wisconsin, after the SCOTUS ruling. 1/n

NC is a toss-up, and they have PAC money going there

AZ is likely Biden.

GA is a toss up.

Texas 2-3 points for Trump, but close

PA will be close, but ultimately Biden (probably) 2/n

100% expectation GOP will challenge everything in court.

Hearing Trump WH thinks they can get state legislatures to throw it to the House, where they expect to win with 25 or 26 delegations. Solid red legislatures are willing to consider this. 3/n

WH expects Barrett will uphold most of these shannanigans

Despite Biden likely winning ~315 EC votes under normal circumstances (i.e. no legislative shenanigans), still a strong chance Trump gets a second term either via courts or states gaming the system. 4/n

Dems need to start thinking what their contingency plans are for a federal government that has collapsed into competitive autocracy, despite their candidate winning by ~6-7 points nationally. 5/n

The Democratic base won't see the government as legitimate, things will get worse fast as Trump consolidates power after the autocratic breakthrough, and there being little hope for meaningful change again through electoral processes. 6/n

Which is why you need to have a plan to vote, and to do so in a way that ensures it is counted. Making the EC vote as lopsided as possible is one of the only ways we have of dissuading the autocratic breakthrough. 7/n