Luton Town #LTFC👒 🆚 Nottingham Forest #NFFC 🌲

A Preview Thread 🔮🧵

Attempting to see the Forest for the trees...

9️⃣ things Hatters fans should know about them and 5️⃣ players to watch out for.

Thanks to @AnalyticsForest for the insight
1️⃣. Forest are a lot better than their current league standing (19th) would have them appear.

As you can see from @experimental361’s Expected Goals table below - after the first seven games they should be 6th (13 places higher than they actually are!).
. Forest are a lot better than their current league standing (19th) would have them appear. As you can see from @experimental361’s Expected Goals table below - after the first seven games they should be 6th (13 places higher than they actually are!).
. Forest are a lot better than their current league standing (19th) would have them appear. As you can see from @experimental361’s Expected Goals table below - after the first seven games they should be 6th (13 places higher than they actually are!).
2️⃣. The 🆕 Manager Bump!

Chris Hughton is in (Lamouchi is out)

In his first 3 games in charge he’s unbeaten, having won one (Blackburn) & drawn two (Rotherham & Derby).

Not too shabby when you consider they’d lost the previous 4 games under Lamouchi https://twitter.com/ChampBallers/status/1317506151093854208
He rung in the changes and the result was a team that was very hard to create chances and take shots against.

As you can see from the stats below they really limited the previously free-scoring Blackburn (who only managed 0.4 xG). 👇 https://twitter.com/StatsChristian/status/1317543366456913921
3️⃣. Their luck appears to be turning! 🍀

Here’s a look at how the xG timelines of the last four matches have played out (note that Lamouchi was in charge for the defeat to Bristol City).
. Their luck appears to be turning! Here’s a look at how the xG timelines of the last four matches have played out (note that Lamouchi was in charge for the defeat to Bristol City).
. Their luck appears to be turning! Here’s a look at how the xG timelines of the last four matches have played out (note that Lamouchi was in charge for the defeat to Bristol City).
. Their luck appears to be turning! Here’s a look at how the xG timelines of the last four matches have played out (note that Lamouchi was in charge for the defeat to Bristol City).
. Their luck appears to be turning! Here’s a look at how the xG timelines of the last four matches have played out (note that Lamouchi was in charge for the defeat to Bristol City).
4️⃣. They're likely to play 4-4-2 OR 4-2-3-1

In terms of tidying things up Hughton has brought in the classic 4-4-2 and mixed and matched it with Lamouchi’s preferred 4-2-3-1.

Here’s how they’re most likely to line up against us...
. They're likely to play 4-4-2 OR 4-2-3-1In terms of tidying things up Hughton has brought in the classic 4-4-2 and mixed and matched it with Lamouchi’s preferred 4-2-3-1.Here’s how they’re most likely to line up against us...
. They're likely to play 4-4-2 OR 4-2-3-1In terms of tidying things up Hughton has brought in the classic 4-4-2 and mixed and matched it with Lamouchi’s preferred 4-2-3-1.Here’s how they’re most likely to line up against us...
With the 4-2-3-1 being probable, as Grabban came off at HT against Derby so is likely to start on the bench.

And as for the 4-4-2 being a bit basic and shunned by most manager’s and fans...

to that Chris Hughton, it would seem, has only one response 👇 https://twitter.com/AnalyticsForest/status/1319697200348319744
But as @DTathletic ponders in his brilliant article; will two out-and-out goal-scorers like Grabban and (our nemesis from years gone by) Lyle Taylor play nice as a pair?

He notes that in the 45 mins vs Derby they only passed to each other just once. https://twitter.com/TheAthleticUK/status/1319964354972774400
5️⃣. Possession is likely to be split fairly evenly.

Or at least it has been on average for Forest so far this season.

Hughton’s Forest have averaged 50% in the three games since his return (with Lamouchi’s an only slightly higher 53.5%) - according to @fbref.
Apart from against Blackburn where, as has already been said they limited their oppositions chances they, it’s interesting to note that they didn’t do this by not letting them have the ball (Forest only had 39% of the ball).
6️⃣. They're neat when they have the ball

They’re a tidy lot - but not as tidy as us (well, it’s actually pretty close).

So far this season averaging a total of 382 passes per game with an accuracy of 79% - this is compared to our 388 per game with 81% accuracy.

🔢 @Wyscout
🔎 Here’s a look at their most recent game 🆚 Derby (1-1)

Key highlights:

- Their CB pairing are competent distributors.

- Their wingers attempt ambitious crosses (lots of them) & their two CMs Yates & Arter are very neat.

Thanks, as always, to the brilliant @DymondFormation
7️⃣. They shoot (A LOT!) 💥

They’ve had the 4th highest shot count in the league - 91 (compared to us ranked 20th with just 62)

Grabban & Amoebi both making the top 15 in the league (both shot totals & per 90).

Can’t see this stopping with Lyle Taylor regaining match fitness.
8️⃣. They also rain in the crosses ⤵️☔️⤴️

162 of them so far - placing them top of the @Wyscout total crosses table

(for context Reading are bottom with just 45 and we are 10th with 105).
Side Note 📝

Judging by our penchant last season for conceding from crosses...

38 goals last season (73% of all the goals we conceded)

... we might want to focus on trying to stop them from doing this.
9️⃣. They also seem to love a 1️⃣v1️⃣ take on

They're 🥈 in the table for these.

Averaging over 29 per game (to our 24 - although our success rate is marginally higher).

Not surprising when you look at their wingers - Ameobi & Lolley being responsible for the majority of these.
5️⃣ Players ❌ 5️⃣ Sets of stats 📊📈😲
1️⃣. ❤️ Anthony Knockaert LOVES playing under Hughton
& their midlands-based reunion should worry us 👇 https://twitter.com/AlbionAnalytics/status/1317142648008986625
2️⃣. 🎨 Luke Freeman (on loan from Sheffield United) is a creative baller 👇 https://twitter.com/ChampBallers/status/1299004631805235200
And he has a banger on him 🚀

(FYI he's left footed - apparently 😳) https://twitter.com/SkyBetChamp/status/1312679350836264962
3️⃣. Scott McKenna is defensively sound (both in the air and on the deck) 👇 https://twitter.com/AnalyticsForest/status/1308742629878886400
🤔 He could have have an achilles heel 👠 though!

He isn't great at blocking shots / pushing strikers wide.

Or, at least, he didn't used to be 👇 https://twitter.com/TheGersReport/status/1241807596098469888
4️⃣. 🍀🚫 Lewis Grabban has been bloody unlucky this season not score and this dry patch is very unlikely to continue (I’m just praying it does against us) 👇 https://twitter.com/11pts1win/status/1319589321377185794
It worries me that @AnalyticsForest isn’t worried 🥺👇 https://twitter.com/AnalyticsForest/status/1314584992333410305
5️⃣. 🧨Lyle Taylor, as we know only too well, is danger personified 👇 https://twitter.com/secondtierpod/status/1297822159180566529
You can follow @LutonAnalytics.
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