Update: Sadly, UK excess deaths are rising again after a summer of stability. Since mid-March, a cautious estimate of the number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus has risen to

67,500

There is both bad and good news in this figure

1/

The bad news first:
- The numbers are rising again. Office for National Statistics reported 669 excess deaths in England and Wales in the week to 16 Oct - 6.8% above the five year average

- There was not much of a decline in excess deaths over the summer. Almost zero

2/

That is pretty strong evidence that the deaths in the spring were not simply of people who had weeks or months to live

- The excess deaths in mid-October reflect infections towards the end of September, which have roughly trippled since,

3/

We are not far from the warning of Patrick Vallence in September of 200 deaths a day now, but two weeks earlier than he warned

But, it's not all bad news

4/

The rise in deaths lined to coronavirus is slow - much slower than in the spring. There is no sign of the 10,000 a week excess deaths we experienced in early April

- With much more testing, there is good reason to think the daily govt numbers will not be horribly wrong

5/

The daily numbers might well be higher than excess deaths. This will happen if people sadly die with the virus but were likely to have died anyway.

The relationship between the two has changed significantly since the spring - again reflecting better knowledge and testing

ENDS