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President keeps saying we have more cases because we are testing more
This is not true
But wait, how do we know?
Doesn't more testing lead to identifying more cases?
Actually, it does
So we look at other data to know if its just about testing or underlying infections
Thread
This is not true
But wait, how do we know?
Doesn't more testing lead to identifying more cases?
Actually, it does
So we look at other data to know if its just about testing or underlying infections
Thread
Easiest is to wait 2-4 weeks
If underlying infections stable but you test more, hospitalizations and deaths will remain stable
But what if you don't want to wait?
Look at test positivity
As testing increases, becomes harder to find the next case
So test positivity drops
If underlying infections stable but you test more, hospitalizations and deaths will remain stable
But what if you don't want to wait?
Look at test positivity
As testing increases, becomes harder to find the next case
So test positivity drops
Best example is NY, which tests more than 100K people daily, test + of about 1.3%
So now, let's look at where we are as a nation vs 2 weeks ago
All data from @COVID19Tracking using 7d moving avg
Yesterday, did 960K tests
2 weeks ago, 898K tests
So testing is going up
3/n
So now, let's look at where we are as a nation vs 2 weeks ago
All data from @COVID19Tracking using 7d moving avg
Yesterday, did 960K tests
2 weeks ago, 898K tests
So testing is going up
3/n
What about infections?
Yesterday 69K cases
2 wks ago 49K cases
So nationally, test positivity 5.5% to 7.1%
Wait, there's more
In 45 states, test positivity has increased past 2 weeks
Yup, in 45 states, increases in testing not keeping up with increasing infections
4/n
Yesterday 69K cases
2 wks ago 49K cases
So nationally, test positivity 5.5% to 7.1%
Wait, there's more
In 45 states, test positivity has increased past 2 weeks
Yup, in 45 states, increases in testing not keeping up with increasing infections
4/n
But wait, there's more
17 states are testing LESS than 2 wks ago
In 16 of those 17 states, cases are up!
So in 16 states, fewer tests but more cases
Could not happen if this was about testing
Finally, remember the lag?
Hospitalizations up in 44 states, deaths in 34 states
17 states are testing LESS than 2 wks ago
In 16 of those 17 states, cases are up!
So in 16 states, fewer tests but more cases
Could not happen if this was about testing
Finally, remember the lag?
Hospitalizations up in 44 states, deaths in 34 states
At this point in the pandemic, can't believe we're still talking about cases rising due to testing
That's not what's happening in America
Dispelling disinformation is getting boring I know
But that's where we are
We're seeing more infections
Mask up
Fin
That's not what's happening in America
Dispelling disinformation is getting boring I know
But that's where we are
We're seeing more infections
Mask up
Fin
