President keeps saying we have more cases because we are testing more

This is not true

But wait, how do we know?

Doesn't more testing lead to identifying more cases?

Actually, it does

So we look at other data to know if its just about testing or underlying infections

Easiest is to wait 2-4 weeks

If underlying infections stable but you test more, hospitalizations and deaths will remain stable

But what if you don't want to wait?

Look at test positivity

As testing increases, becomes harder to find the next case

So test positivity drops
Best example is NY, which tests more than 100K people daily, test + of about 1.3%

So now, let's look at where we are as a nation vs 2 weeks ago

All data from @COVID19Tracking using 7d moving avg

Yesterday, did 960K tests
2 weeks ago, 898K tests

So testing is going up

What about infections?

Yesterday 69K cases
2 wks ago 49K cases

So nationally, test positivity 5.5% to 7.1%

Wait, there's more

In 45 states, test positivity has increased past 2 weeks

Yup, in 45 states, increases in testing not keeping up with increasing infections

But wait, there's more

17 states are testing LESS than 2 wks ago

In 16 of those 17 states, cases are up!

So in 16 states, fewer tests but more cases

Could not happen if this was about testing

Finally, remember the lag?

Hospitalizations up in 44 states, deaths in 34 states
At this point in the pandemic, can't believe we're still talking about cases rising due to testing

That's not what's happening in America

Dispelling disinformation is getting boring I know

But that's where we are

We're seeing more infections

Mask up

You can follow @ashishkjha.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: