1. Interesting report from German insurance company Allianz showing a no deal Brexit would cost EU countries €33bn in exports. Germany would be hit the hardest with an €8.2bn loss, followed by the Netherlands and France. https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/publications/specials_fmo/2020_10_20_Brexit.html

2. Allianz's report sounds broadly accurate but it is probably an underestimate. This is only the latest in a series of reports showing the huge damage of no deal to the EU27.

3. In February 2019, the highly respected German Halle Institute found a no deal Brexit would put 422,000 EU27 jobs at risk. 100,000 at risk in Germany, 50,000 in France, and 20,000 in Ireland. This compared to the relatively few 12,000 at risk in the UK. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/192952/1/1049293045.pdf

4. Last week, business leaders from the German BDI, Italy's Confindustria and France's Medef called on the Commission to reach a deal. Pressure is clearly mounting on the EU side. https://www.ft.com/content/e9706b10-b2d8-4911-9b91-350bc9f0996b

5. If @EmmanuelMacron insists on being bloody minded in these negotiations, the French and other European economies will be hit hard and face other consequences, for example continental fishermen will lose all rights in British waters.