THREAD: Why the Tories don’t want a national lockdown.

Here’s a graph showing English constituencies arranged in deciles ranging from the areas which currently have the lowest Covid rates to the ones with the highest rates, and how they voted in 2019. 1/9

(Data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-data#cases-by-middle-super-output-area-msoa) You’ll notice that most Tory held seats are in areas which have relatively low Covid rates (often fairly affluent areas in the South and East), whereas Labour’s seats are more concentrated in areas with relatively high Covid rates. 2/9

The government clearly doesn’t want to upset voters in its traditional heartlands by imposing a national “circuit-breaker”, which many of its voters see as unnecessary in low Covid areas. For Labour, adopting this policy is much less of a political risk. 3/9

The government is also reluctant to provide proper financial compensation for Covid-hit areas. Although many of the seats it holds in high Covid areas are “Red Wall” seats which were crucial to the 2019 victory, they are still a minority of its total seats. 4/9

This has led to the “Northern Research Group” of Tory MPs demanding an exit strategy from Tier 3 and arguing that the Covid pandemic “has exposed in sharp relief the deep structural and systemic disadvantage faced by our communities”. 5/9 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/over-50-tory-mps-in-northern-england-press-pm-for-roadmap-out-of-lockdown

This reveals the inherent tension between a government that instinctively doesn’t want to spend money, and the fact that its election victory was won in seats where it promised to “level up” – a task made harder given Covid has hit these areas so badly. 6/9

Meanwhile, back to the virus.

Whilst absolute Covid rates are relatively low in many Tory held areas, if we look at where the greatest increases in cases have occured over the last 4 weeks, then the picture is more mixed. 7/9

So even if numbers are low right now, many Conservative constituencies are likely to see big increases in Covid cases in the near future if further action is not taken. This is why the SAGE Committee has recommended national circuit breakers. 8/9 https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-circuit-breaker-should-take-place-during-every-school-holiday-sage-says-12105171

For now, the government is running away from both national action on Covid, and proper compensation for relatively deprived Covid-hit areas for fear of upsetting its heartland voters in the short term. This may be something they come to regret at the next election. 9/9