I usually try to avoid political hot takes, bc what do I know? But I'm feeling both terrified and philosophical about the Barrett confirmation. Her chance to do immense harm will basically come *next week*. After that, she will be a GOP liability 1/

Right now, everything is pointing to a Dem tsunami. If you look at the median of state polls — which excludes dodgy outfits — it suggests something like a 9-point D swing since 2016, which would be a blowout 2/ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/presidential-polls-trump-biden?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage&section=The%20Upshot#still-no-post-debate-polling-swings-and-time-is-running-out

Dave Wasserman, who is looking at a mass of district-level polls — and warned correctly about 2016 — is saying the same thing 3/ https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320928408432463872

So the big question seems to be whether Republicans will be able to steal the election by preventing many votes from being counted — which is where the Supremes come in 4/

If they do, American democracy is over. If they don't, a Democratic majority won't allow an illegitimate court, effectively packed by a party that can't win popular support, to rule the nation 5/

So it's really all about next week. How far will an extremist GOP go to hold power? 6/