So I've talked about what will happen to Britain if Biden wins...its only logical we consider what would happen if Trump wins next week.

<<A thread on what a 2nd term Trump means for the UK>>

Many assume Trump re-election = status quo.
It doesn't.

Trump has been seen as a surprise short term aberration - even in US.
2nd Term Trump means establishment of populo-fascism.

For UK this means anti-EUism is here to stay with momentum & acceptance of Brexit radicalism.

Trump re-election would empower UK conservatives who see a defensive EU lacking momentum.
But EU would likely withdraw from areas of conflict with US & try to act defensive anyway in trade & FP.

2nd Term Trump wouldn't make Brexit much easier..but it makes it easier to sell.

Conversely it would make Brexit concessions/roll back more difficult.
UK voters might not like Trump but they're aware of the power of US.
Food standards & health privatisation would thus be more difficult to fight off....although this would trigger a more angry opposition...

Which leads to next change.
2nd Term Trump wld accelerate the US style culture war in UK conservatives stop finessing Trump & throw in their lot with him.

UK Tories will see a gap in the mkt for Trump's favoured ally - this would likely drive Labour leftwards again.

EU will become more assertive & less junior-partner to the US.
Relations between UK & EU will cool even below what there is now.

The West will fracture between democrats & US-adherents.
Interestingly the main force for overturning Brexit will thus come from the left..

the 2024 election will thus be fought along Euro-leftism Vs UK-Trumpism lines.

The sporadic Brexit/race violence & intimidation that hit central London 2018-19 will thus re-emerge & escalate as the right starts to become more overtly Pro-US.

The centre will collapse.

You can follow @nicktolhurst.
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