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I've flown a few times based on my perception of low – but non-zero – risk. This new report of a big outbreak on a 7-hour Irish flight https://tinyurl.com/y4fs2y7f doesn't change the overall risk calculus (still very low, if passengers wear masks) but adds to the evidence that...(1/3)
... Covid risk is not evenly distributed. The average risk of an encounter is actually a combo of many, many low-risk encounters, combined a few high-risk ones (super-spreader events) https://tinyurl.com/yxmykmu9 . The problem is that there's no good way to predict super-... (2/3)
... spreader events, so we're stuck with dealing w/ "average" risk. This paper https://tinyurl.com/y4ce3mwh , which estimates the risk of catching Covid from a 2-hr flight at ~1-in-5000, is still what I go by. Based on it, I won't fly for fun or to a mtg, but will fly if crucial. (3/3)
