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Another fantastic show by Richard & Robert today.
Another fantastic show by Richard & Robert today.
2) If you missed it you can find it using the link below:
Richard will share results on PA and MI during his show tomorrow. He is still polling in WI and MN. We should have data from those states later in the week.
Richard did share some data on
Richard will share results on PA and MI during his show tomorrow. He is still polling in WI and MN. We should have data from those states later in the week.
Richard did share some data on
3) St. Louis county in MN. HRC won that by 14% in 2016. This is the heart of the Iron Range and Duluth falls in this district.
We may see a 25 point shift in this county. PDJT is up ~11 points with the raw data. Robert is not surprised because there are a lot of Norwegian
We may see a 25 point shift in this county. PDJT is up ~11 points with the raw data. Robert is not surprised because there are a lot of Norwegian
4) voters in this county and throughout the entire state of MN (1 out of 5 voters in MN have a Norwegian ancestry while 8% of Wisconsin voters have a Norwegian ancestry).
Richard shared that PDJT is currently getting 17% of the black vote in PA according to the raw data.
Richard shared that PDJT is currently getting 17% of the black vote in PA according to the raw data.
5) Richard also shared another nugget. He says PDJT is getting ~40% of the vote in Allegheny county in PA. In his last poll conducted two weeks ago, he was only getting 34% of the vote there.
Richard shared that in order to get Biden even in WI, he had to skew the women’s vote
Richard shared that in order to get Biden even in WI, he had to skew the women’s vote
6) to ~62.5%. There is a really good chance that the total vote in Wisconsin will be 50% men vs. 50% women.
Richard also gave a hint about what PA will look like tomorrow when he was grateful to see a poll come out today showing PDJT up 3 in PA. He says the company has a really
Richard also gave a hint about what PA will look like tomorrow when he was grateful to see a poll come out today showing PDJT up 3 in PA. He says the company has a really
7) good track record.
He was afraid his poll would be an outlier
.
Robert has PDJT winning at 75% (nationally)
Here are the reasons for it:
How well PDJT did during the primary election (Norpoth Primary Model). He kept over 90%+ of the Republican primary vote. https://twitter.com/pollwatch2020/status/1320776658824036352
He was afraid his poll would be an outlier
.Robert has PDJT winning at 75% (nationally)
Here are the reasons for it:
How well PDJT did during the primary election (Norpoth Primary Model). He kept over 90%+ of the Republican primary vote. https://twitter.com/pollwatch2020/status/1320776658824036352
8) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls
Registration data during the last 6 months leading up to the election favors PDJT in NC, FL, PA and AZ to a smaller extent (even though since 2016 Democrats have a small registration advantage). Our President should win PA, NC & FL by bigger margins
Registration data during the last 6 months leading up to the election favors PDJT in NC, FL, PA and AZ to a smaller extent (even though since 2016 Democrats have a small registration advantage). Our President should win PA, NC & FL by bigger margins
9) than 2016 while still winning AZ by close to the margin in 2016.
Party Affiliation Poll by Gallup (if the Democrats advantage is less than 5% in the fall poll Republican wins) the current margin is R+1
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
R - 28%
D - 27%
I - 42%
Party Affiliation Poll by Gallup (if the Democrats advantage is less than 5% in the fall poll Republican wins) the current margin is R+1
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
R - 28%
D - 27%
I - 42%
10) Enthusiasm gap favors Trump (working class whites are paying very close attention to the election while millennial minorities are saying they are not paying attention to the election)
https://news.gallup.com/poll/320738/attention-politics-shows-typical-election-year-surge.aspx
Rally sizes, cookie polls, Halloween masks, campaign signs,
https://news.gallup.com/poll/320738/attention-politics-shows-typical-election-year-surge.aspx
Rally sizes, cookie polls, Halloween masks, campaign signs,
11) google searches, online activity all point to PDJT winning.
Robert expects the following breakdown on who votes in the 2020 Election:
Working white not college - 47% of the vote (Robert believes PDJT will win them by 40%)
White College - 28%
Robert expects the following breakdown on who votes in the 2020 Election:
Working white not college - 47% of the vote (Robert believes PDJT will win them by 40%)
White College - 28%
12) Black vote will be at 11% (down 1% from 2016 when it was 12%)
Latino vote will be at 10% (up 1% from 2016 when it was 10%)
Asian/Others will be between 4% and 5% (similar to 2016)
Robert thinks the party affiliation edge will be R+0 nationally
Latino vote will be at 10% (up 1% from 2016 when it was 10%)
Asian/Others will be between 4% and 5% (similar to 2016)
Robert thinks the party affiliation edge will be R+0 nationally
13) It still will show a D+3/D+4 advantage because there are still many people identified as Democrat on the voter file but don’t consider themselves Democrats (especially in the South)
Robert anticipates 150 million total votes. 73 million for PDJT, 73 million for Biden and
Robert anticipates 150 million total votes. 73 million for PDJT, 73 million for Biden and
14) 6 million for others. He is hesitant to say PDJT will win the popular vote because states like CA, IL and NY could have bigger percentages than 2016.
Youth vote should be 14% in early voting data it is actually sitting at 10% nationally while in some battleground states it
Youth vote should be 14% in early voting data it is actually sitting at 10% nationally while in some battleground states it
15) is less than 10%
Robert says to bet PDJT winning:
Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, NE-2, ME-2, margin will be more than 3.5 in Ohio, win margin will be more than 4 in GA and NC, more than 2
Robert says to bet PDJT winning:
Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, NE-2, ME-2, margin will be more than 3.5 in Ohio, win margin will be more than 4 in GA and NC, more than 2
16) in Florida
Robert says the college vote could cost Biden the state of New Hampshire. As you can see in the image below, it is currently sitting at 4%.
Richard May poll NH if there is enough money left over from the cost to track PA, MI, WI and MN. We need to raise another
Robert says the college vote could cost Biden the state of New Hampshire. As you can see in the image below, it is currently sitting at 4%.
Richard May poll NH if there is enough money left over from the cost to track PA, MI, WI and MN. We need to raise another
17) $5,000 to cover that cost. You can do so at the links below:
Contribute to Public Polling Project 2020
https://paypal.me/PeoplesPundit
https://www.venmo.com/PeoplesPundit
I recommend following @athein1 for daily data from Florida’s
Contribute to Public Polling Project 2020
https://paypal.me/PeoplesPundit
https://www.venmo.com/PeoplesPundit
I recommend following @athein1 for daily data from Florida’s
18) early voting and VBM. Here is his latest tweet: https://twitter.com/athein1/status/1320856884132233216
19) I suggest following @mngander92 for early vote analysis of MN. Here is his latest thread on the state: https://twitter.com/mngander92/status/1320545392702967808
20) @CottoGottfried also has a podcast with awesome guests. At midnight he released the following conversation with Richard Baris:
@NateSilver538 is a real POS that is in for a rude awakening if he has been falsifying his polls which Robert suspects he is doing! https://twitter.com/cottogottfried/status/1320696679977242624
@NateSilver538 is a real POS that is in for a rude awakening if he has been falsifying his polls which Robert suspects he is doing! https://twitter.com/cottogottfried/status/1320696679977242624
