In this thread, I will endeavor to use numbers to put the "new Metadev exclusivity" thing into better perspective.

Obviously, this involves a fair amount of assumptions, but I hope the ones I make in this thread are clear and reasonable.

(see below for methods & conclusion)

First, Brawlhalla recently celebrated the milestone of 50 mil accounts. Let's assume every single player has two accounts, making the number of *actual* players 25 mil.

Next, the esports streams tend to gather about 60,000 concurrent viewers. For BCX, let's assume Metadevs are a massive draw and the streams get 200,000 viewers.

Let's further assume *every single one* of those viewers each get all the Metadevs.

As for people who already had Metadevs, that's hard to determine, let's be overly generous here and say a total of 200,000 players have one or more Metadevs.

To recap my assumptions:

25 mil real players
200,000 BCX stream viewers each get Metadevs
200,000 players already have Metadevs

All things being equal, that means that after BCX, the rarity of any Metadev will be 400,000 out of 25 million. In terms of percents, that comes to...

...1.6% of all players having Metadevs.

That's it. 1.6%.

I'd like to know exactly what people's definition of "rare" is, because even with my overly generous assumptions, that seems pretty rare to me.

P.S.--Some people have mentioned how active the playerbase is, so I looked up the monthly active user numbers.

Unfortunately, because of all the platforms, this is hard to find. The best I could do was a tweet from Matt Woomer: https://twitter.com/MattWoomer/status/1277730166463234053

That tweet shows that there were 7.5 mil monthly active users in May 2020. That was right before moble BH was released. But for the sake of argument let's assume the monthly active users for Sep. 2020 is 8 mil.

Using the same assumptions as before (400,000 total players with Metadevs), the "new" new Metadev rarity among *active* Brawlhalla players is...

...

5.33%

Still seems pretty rare to me.

Also, as one final thing to help those of you who have been in the community for years: https://twitter.com/Fodakahn/status/1320862085249703936?s=20

According to the 10 mil monthly active user count Matt Woomer provided below, and with my above assumptions (400,000 have Metadevs after BCX), that brings the new calculated estimated percentage to...

...4%. Huh. Yeah. Still pretty rare.