1/10: A win for #JoeBiden in the #USElection next week would be good for the overall interests of #UK but problematic for the #BorisJohnson government. How would the arrival of a Biden administration affect British #foreignpolicy? A thread..

2/10: As the song says, it ain’t what you do it’s the way that you do it. Not all #Trump foreign policy was bad (though much was). He made an important call on #China. But he has no idea of the common good, squandered American leadership & damaged alliances & institutions.

3/10: #Biden would be a reversion toward the norm. Unexciting perhaps, but needed & welcome. But he would not mean wholesale change in #US foreign policy. The pressures of #COVID19, political polarisation & economic dislocation remain. As will the tough geopolitical environment.

4/10: Though there is is no appetite for expansive US internationalism, a #Biden win would be a chance to change the tone & recalibrate relationships. He will want to work with allies and reinforce relations with #NATO partners & leading #EU members like #Germany & #France.

5/10: But Western democracies must avoid complacency. There is no way back to old post Cold War relationships. They will be expected to prove their value on today’s American agenda, which continues to shift away from #Europe: above all on #China & #defence burden sharing.

6/10: Yes, there will be a chance to reengage #US leadership in multilateral agendas & organisations, provided they show their worth. WHO & #WTO for example. On climate, a different US policy should permit more collaboration & an opportunity for #UK as host of #COP26.

7/10: In theory Biden’s #foreignpolicy instinct, favouring alliances & cooperation, should present a golden opportunity for #UK - the country with still the strongest instinctive & institutional ties in Washington - as it seeks to forge a new global role after #Brexit.

8/10: But while it may be comfortable with Biden’s foreign policy, this British government is politically more attuned to #Trump: of the Right & rooted in post 2016 nationalist identity politics. Trump supported #Brexit, Biden did not. Does Downing Street prefer Trump?

9/10: A big UK/US #FTA is unlikely in any scenario. This is more about political symbolism than economic reality. It seems less likely with Biden: he has no political investment in a UK deal, the Democrats are closed on #trade & Biden is influenced by the Irish angles of #Brexit.

10/10: The people who said in 2016 that #Trump might be only for four years but #Brexit would be for a generation or more may soon be proved at least half right. A #Biden win would be good for the UK, but probably not for Brexiters’ naive notions of #GlobalBritain