This week I'm looking at the best and worst case scenarios for the next 4 years under Biden or Trump. Unfortunately, the worst cases for both will come to pass if they just continue on their present course, which is the most likely outcome. Thread.

For Joe Biden that means a corporate friendly incrementalist agenda and an unrelenting quest to work with Republicans who will never ever work with him in good faith. Basically grand bargains and "the fever will break" forever.

He'll take office with massive economic scarring from the covid fallout and craft a deal to appeal to Joe Manchin at best and Mitt Romney at worst. He'll be, as he has always been, seduced by deficit hawk balanced budget quackery, furthering the economic pain.

On foreign policy, he'll mostly do the opposite of whatever Trump did which is a mixed bag. No attempt to make a deal with the Taliban to exit Afghanistan, no talks with N. Korea, no China trade war but he'll seek reentry into the Iran Nuclear Deal and Paris Climate.

Bottom line is that none of the problems that brought us Trump will be resolved, the public will be angrier and economy more unequal than ever. What comes next is anybody's guess but it's unlikely to be pretty.