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NEW: "Forecast 2025: China Adjusts Course" is now live.
Over the medium-term, we see a more capable & outwardly cautious China, one that'll prioritize domestic agenda over global ambitions. The forecast focuses on 4 areas: econ, politics, tech, & energy. https://macropolo.org/analysis/forecast-china-2025-adjusts-course/
Over the medium-term, we see a more capable & outwardly cautious China, one that'll prioritize domestic agenda over global ambitions. The forecast focuses on 4 areas: econ, politics, tech, & energy. https://macropolo.org/analysis/forecast-china-2025-adjusts-course/
1/ So what kind of China should be expected by 2025?
The short answer: China will likely become near-majority middle class, on its way to peak carbon, with increasing tech parity with Silicon Valley, all under the aegis of a stronger Xi Jinping. https://macropolo.org/analysis/forecast-china-2025-adjusts-course/
The short answer: China will likely become near-majority middle class, on its way to peak carbon, with increasing tech parity with Silicon Valley, all under the aegis of a stronger Xi Jinping. https://macropolo.org/analysis/forecast-china-2025-adjusts-course/
2 / With a foreword from @damienics, our forecast focuses on 4 base cases:
Econ: Eluding the Middle Income Trap @hzsong
Politics: Stronger as Xi Goes @neilthomas123
Tech: Fragile Tech Superpower @mattsheehan88
Energy: Setting Course for Peak Emissions @mazzocco_ilaria
Econ: Eluding the Middle Income Trap @hzsong
Politics: Stronger as Xi Goes @neilthomas123
Tech: Fragile Tech Superpower @mattsheehan88
Energy: Setting Course for Peak Emissions @mazzocco_ilaria
3/ Will China elude the middle income trap?
What are the external and internal pressures that will compel China to respond differently in the next five years? What will happen to Chinese FDI & domestic reform?
Find the answers in our economic forecast: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-economy-forecast-2025-eluding-the-middle-income-trap/
What are the external and internal pressures that will compel China to respond differently in the next five years? What will happen to Chinese FDI & domestic reform?
Find the answers in our economic forecast: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-economy-forecast-2025-eluding-the-middle-income-trap/
4/ Will Xi Jinping appoint a successor in 2022?
What will be Xi's governance priorities?
Will China announce any major foreign policy initiatives?
Read our base case on Chinese politics: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/
What will be Xi's governance priorities?
Will China announce any major foreign policy initiatives?
Read our base case on Chinese politics: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-forecast-politics-2025-stronger-as-xi-jinping-goes/
5/ What will be the major shift in China's tech landscape?
Do semiconductors present a serious bottleneck over the next five years?
How will China deploy its digital infrastructure?
Hear us out in our technology forecast: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-technology-forecast-2025-fragile-tech-superpower/
Do semiconductors present a serious bottleneck over the next five years?
How will China deploy its digital infrastructure?
Hear us out in our technology forecast: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-technology-forecast-2025-fragile-tech-superpower/
6/ Finally, on energy, will China achieve its ambitious peak carbon goals before 2030?
How will power sector reform in the next five years align with China's energy plan?
What will be the trade off between coal and renewables?
Read the energy forecast: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-energy-forecast-2025-setting-course-for-peak-emissions/
How will power sector reform in the next five years align with China's energy plan?
What will be the trade off between coal and renewables?
Read the energy forecast: https://macropolo.org/analysis/china-energy-forecast-2025-setting-course-for-peak-emissions/
